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Tasa de interés de largo plazo, interés técnico y pasivo pensional

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Wilmar Cabrera

    ()

  • Esteban Gómez

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Mendoza

    ()

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    Abstract

    Este artículo se pregunta si es oportuno modificar la tasa de interés técnica utilizada para descontar el pasivo pensional del nivel actual de 4% anual, dada, por un lado, la trayectoria reciente que ha tenido la tasa de interés real y, por otro, las circunstancias diferentes que vive la economía en relación con 1994 cuando fue fijada en dicho nivel. Se hacen diferentes pronósticos y simulaciones utilizando distintos enfoques estadísticos y financieros. Así mismo, se toma en cuenta la restricción macroeconómica que impone el crecimiento de muy largo plazo de la economía. Los resultados sugieren que no se debería mover la tasa de descuento del pasivo pensional y que ésta debería continuar en el 4% anual.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_796.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 011101.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 09 Dec 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011101

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    Related research

    Keywords: Tasa de interés real; tasa de interés técnica; pasivo pensional; regla de oro.;

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    1. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Juan David Prada Sarmiento & Luis Eduardo Rojas Dueñas Author- Email: lrojasdu@banrep.gov.co, . "La elasticidad de Frisch y la transmisión de la política monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 555, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Diego M. Vásquez, 2003. "Mecanismo De Cobertura Para El Riesgo De Tasa De Interés Real De Los Bancos Hipotecarios Colombianos," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003189, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. María Angélica Arbeláez & Jorge Humberto Botero & Alejandra González & Camila Salamanca, 2011. "Sostenibilidad del seguro previsional en Colombia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009066, FEDESARROLLO.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    6. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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