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La Relación Entre El Crédito Y La Inflación

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  • Hernando Vargas H.

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    Abstract

    En los últimos dos años el crecimiento de la cartera del sistema financiero ha alcanzado niveles históricamente altos. En efecto, como se aprecia en el gráfico 1, durante 1994 y parte de 1993, la cartera de todos los intermediarios creció por encima del 20% anual en términos reales, algo sin precedentes en los últimos diez años. Según el mismo gráfico, este fenómeno ha sido acompañado por un incremento significativo de los cuasidineros, aunque en proporciones inferiores a las del crédito. Por otra parte, según un trabajo reciente del Banco de la República, el alza de la cartera se ha concentrado en el crédito hipotecario y de consumo (Banco de la República, 1994). Tales comportamientos han despertado inquietud acerca de su posible efecto sobre la estabilidad de precios. El propósito del presente trabajo es, por lo tanto, determinar la relación entre el crédito e inflación en Colombia. Con dicho fin, es necesario en primera instancia explorar los mecanismos a través de los cuales el crédito puede incidir sobre los precios. Este el tema de la segunda sección e implica discutir los canales de transmisión de la política monetaria. En la tercera se propone una forma de probar estadísticamente posibles relaciones entre crédito e inflación. En la cuarta sección, se explora un canal alternativo del crédito a los precios a través de la inflación de activos. La quinta concluye el trabajo.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003076.

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    Length: 66
    Date of creation: 31 Jul 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003076

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    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    7. Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," NBER Working Papers 1619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Garry J. Schinasi & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1994. "Asset Prices, Financial Liberalization, and the Process of Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 94/153, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1988. "Money and Credit in the Monetary Transmission Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 446-51, May.
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    11. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1982. "Monetary Policy with a Credit Aggregate Target," NBER Working Papers 0980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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