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R&D and Patents: Which Way Does the Causality Run?

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  • Erik Brouwer
  • Alfred Kleinknecht
  • Pierre Mohnen

    ()

  • Hans van Ophem

Abstract

From cross-sectional data of 460 firms that responded to both the 1988 and the 1992 Dutch innovation surveys we have reexamined the causality direction between R&D and patents, using data on contemporaneous and four-year lagged patent applications and R&D expenditures. The two equations have been estimated jointly assuming a bivariate conditional distribution between the two variables, one being discrete and the other one continuous. We have experimented with different specifications of the count data for patent applications. We find that patents Granger-cause R&D in all specifications. One additional patent increases R&D four years later by 7.5%. The reverse causality from R&D to patents vanishes as soon as we depart in one way or another from the simple Poisson specification of patent counts. � partir de données transversales de 460 entreprises néerlandaises ayant répondu aux enquêtes innovation de 1988 et 1992, nous réexaminons le sens de la causalité entre la R-D et les brevets. Les deux équations de comportement ont été estimées simultanément en supposant une distribution bivariée conditionnelle entre ces deux variables, dont l'une est discrète et l'autre continue. Nous avons essayé différentes spécifications pour les données de comptage sur les brevets. Nous trouvons que la causalité à la Granger va des brevets à la R-D dans toutes les spécifications. Un brevet en plus augmente la R-D quatre ans plus tard de 7,5 %. La causalité dans l'autre sens disparaît dès que l'on s'écarte le moindrement d'une distribution Poisson des données de brevets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2001s-31.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-31

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Keywords: Innovation survey data; patents; R&D; count data; Enquêtes innovation; brevets; R-D; données de comptage;

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References

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  1. Licht, Georg & Zoz, Konrad, 1996. "Patents and R&D: an econometric investigation using applications for German, European and US patents by German companies," ZEW Discussion Papers 96-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Zvi Griliches, 1990. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 3301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Bound & Clint Cummins & Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe, 1982. "Who Does R&D and Who Patents?," NBER Working Papers 0908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • John Bound & Clint Cummins & Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe, 1984. "Who Does R&D and Who Patents?," NBER Chapters, in: R & D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 21-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. van Ophem, Hans, 1999. "A General Method To Estimate Correlated Discrete Random Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 228-237, April.
  5. Acs, Zoltan J & Audretsch, David B, 1989. "Patents as a Measure of Innovative Activity," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 171-80.
  6. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
  7. Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Ariel Pakes, 1988. "R&D, Patents, and Market Value Revisited: Is There Evidence of A SecondTechnological Opportunity Related Factor?," NBER Working Papers 2624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. d'ASPREMONT, Claude & JACQUEMIN, Alexis, . "Cooperative and noncooperative R&D in duopoly with spillovers," CORE Discussion Papers RP -823, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A, 1986. "Patents and R and D: Is There a Lag?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 265-83, June.
  11. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Market Value, R&D, and Patents," NBER Chapters, in: R & D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 249-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," NBER Technical Working Papers 0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Wang, Peiming & Cockburn, Iain M & Puterman, Martin L, 1998. "Analysis of Patent Data--A Mixed-Poisson-Regression-Model Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-41, January.
  14. van Ophem, Hans, 2000. "Modeling Selectivity in Count-Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 503-11, October.
  15. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-12, March.
  16. Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Estimating the Innovation Function from Patent Numbers: GMM on Count Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 243-63, May-June.
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