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Commerce international et transports : tendances du passe et prospective 2020

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Author Info
Christophe Gouel
Nina Kousnetzoff
Hassan Salman

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Abstract

Les couts pour l’environnement des emissions de CO2 dues aux transports internationaux vont etre progressivement integres aux prix de transport dans le cadre d’accords internationaux de politique de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique. Cette source de hausse des prix s’ajoutera au rencherissement durable des carburants d’origine petroliere. Dans ce contexte, cette etude fait le point sur l’evolution passee des transports internationaux de marchandises et sur leur lien avec la croissance du commerce mondial, avant de simuler l’impact d’une taxation du carbone. La premiere partie rappelle les difficultes de mesure des couts de transport et de leur effet sur le commerce international. La deuxieme partie decrit le developpement des transports internationaux depuis 40 ans. Enfin, la troisieme partie presente l’impact de la taxation du CO2 emis par les transports, simule avec le modele d’equilibre general MIRAGE. Deux types de taxes et deux niveaux de taxation – 25 et 50 dollars la tonne – sont envisages. Dans tous les cas, a l’horizon 2020, la taxe induit un ralentissement de la croissance du commerce mondial plus marque que celui du PIB, mais, a ces niveaux de taxation, les effets restent faibles.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-28.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-28

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Related research
Keywords: Transport international de marchandises; couts de transport; commerce international; taxe carbone; MIRAGE; modele d’equilibre general calculable;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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