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The effects of disasters on income mobility: Bootstrap inference and measurement error simulations

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  • Espen Villanger

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of disasters on income mobility by drawing on "natural experiments". While the poor have a much higher probability of remaining poor when entering a crisis compared to normal times, there is also a negative effect in the year after. Richer households seem to be unaffected. A simple bootstrap method is proposed to facilitate statistical inference for mobility matrices. Also, we simulate measurement error to illustrate its magnitude on these matrices. Small errors induce a substantial downward bias of the probability of remaining poor, while comp arisons across states seem more robust, which is promising for impact analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway in its series CMI Working Papers with number WP 2003:6.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chm:wpaper:wp2003-6

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Related research

Keywords: Income mobility Effects of disasters Bootstrap Measurement error Simulations Natural experiments Control group Treatment group Poverty;

References

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  1. Lanjouw, Peter & Ravallion, Martin & DEC, 1994. "Poverty and household size," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1332, The World Bank.
  2. Adams, Richard H. Jr. & He, Jane J., 1995. "Sources of income inequality and poverty in rural Pakistan:," Research reports 102, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Besley, Timothy, 1995. "Savings, credit and insurance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 2123-2207 Elsevier.
  4. Alderman, H. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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  7. Alderman, Harold & Garcia, Marito, 1993. "Poverty, household food security, and nutrition in rural Pakistan:," Research reports 96, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Biewen, Martin, 2002. "Bootstrap inference for inequality, mobility and poverty measurement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 317-342, June.
  9. Frank A. Cowell & Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser, 2002. "Welfare Rankings in the Presence of Contaminated Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1221-1233, May.
  10. John Bound & Alan B. Krueger, 1989. "The Extent of Measurement Error In Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make A Right?," NBER Working Papers 2885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lars Osberg & Kuan Xu, 2000. "International Comparisons of Poverty Intensity: Index Decomposition and Bootstrap Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(1), pages 51-81.
  12. Parker, Simon C. & Gardner, Sam, 2002. "International income mobility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 179-187, July.
  13. Lipton, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Poverty and policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1130, The World Bank.
  14. Rendtel, Ulrich & Langeheine, Rolf & Berntsen, Roland, 1998. "The Estimation of Poverty Dynamics Using Different Measurements of Household Income," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(1), pages 81-98, March.
  15. Mills, Jeffrey A & Zandvakili, Sourushe, 1997. "Statistical Inference via Bootstrapping for Measures of Inequality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-50, March-Apr.
  16. Birchenall, Javier A., 2001. "Income distribution, human capital and economic growth in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 271-287, October.
  17. Foster, Andrew D, 1995. "Prices, Credit Markets and Child Growth in Low-Income Rural Areas," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 551-70, May.
  18. Morduch, Jonathan, 1999. "Between the State and the Market: Can Informal Insurance Patch the Safety Net?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 187-207, August.
  19. Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Expected Poverty under Risk-Induced Welfare Variability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1171-82, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Odd-Helge Fjeldstad & Florida Henjewele & Geoffrey Mwambe & Erasto Ngalewa & Knut Nygaard, 2004. "Local government finances and financial management in Tanzania," CMI Working Papers WP 2004: 7, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
  2. World Bank, 2007. "Social Protection in Pakistan : Managing Household Risks and Vulnerability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7660, The World Bank.
  3. Nayoung Lee & Geert Ridder & John Strauss, 2010. "Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data," Textos para discussão 576, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  4. Odd-Helge Fjeldstad, 2003. "What has trust got to do with it? Non-payment of service charges in local authorities in South Africa," CMI Working Papers WP 2003:12, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.

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