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Fund Flows and Market States

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco A. Franzoni

    (USI Lugano; Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

  • Martin C. Schmalz

    (University of Oxford - Finance; CEPR; CESifo; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI))

Abstract

This paper establishes a new empirical fact: mutual funds' flow-performance sensitivity is a hump-shaped function of aggregate risk-factor realizations. Explanations based on extant theories can only explain a fraction of the pattern. We thus develop a new parsimonious model. It assumes Bayesian investors who are uncertain about the degree to which fund returns are exposed to systematic risk. Fund performance is then less informative about manager skill when factor realizations are larger in absolute value. The data also support the out-of-sample prediction that the hump shape is more pronounced for funds with more uncertain risk loadings.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco A. Franzoni & Martin C. Schmalz, 2013. "Fund Flows and Market States," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-41, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1341
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    File URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263944
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin C Schmalz & Sergey Zhuk, 2019. "Revealing Downturns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 338-373.
    2. Kuzmina, Olga, 2020. "A model-free identification of relative risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Chandra Sekhar Mangipudi & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 0. "What Do Fund Flows Reveal about Asset Pricing Models and Investor Sophistication?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 108-148.
    4. Luo, Deming & Jiang, Sainan & Yao, Zhongwei, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and mutual fund risk shifting," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Ming Gu & Minxing Sun & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 237-259, March.
    6. Fricke, Daniel & Wilke, Hannes, 2020. "Connected Funds," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224511, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Hameed, Allaudeen & Xie, Jing, 2019. "Preference for dividends and return comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 103-125.
    8. Moraes, Fernando & Cavalcante-Filho, Elias & De-Losso, Rodrigo, 2021. "Unskilled fund managers: Replicating active fund performance with few ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Eisele, Alexander & Nefedova, Tamara & Parise, Gianpaolo & Peijnenburg, Kim, 2020. "Trading out of sight: An analysis of cross-trading in mutual fund families," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 359-378.
    10. Fricke, Daniel & Jank, Stephan & Wilke, Hannes, 2022. "Who creates and who bears flow externalities in mutual funds?," Discussion Papers 41/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Ibert, Markus, 2023. "What do mutual fund managers’ private portfolios tell us about their skills?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    12. Fricke, Christoph & Fricke, Daniel, 2021. "Vulnerable asset management? The case of mutual funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Jennifer Huang & Kelsey D. Wei & Hong Yan, 2022. "Investor learning and mutual fund flows," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 739-765, September.
    14. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Young, Martin, 2021. "Do climate risks matter for green investment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Richard Apau & Peter Moores-Pitt & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2021. "Regime-Switching Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    16. Sara Ali & Ihsan Badshah & Riza Demirer & Prasad Hegde, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and fund flow performance sensitivity: Evidence from New Zealand," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 666-679, September.
    17. Rakowski, David & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Endogeneity in the mutual fund flow–performance relationship: An instrumental variables solution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 247-271.
    18. Omori, Kozo & Kitamura, Tomoki, 2023. "Investor response to Morningstar's ratings, category information, and alpha in the Japanese mutual fund market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2022. "Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June.
    20. Dimitris Papadimitriou & Konstantinos Tokis & Georgios Vichos & Panos Mourdoukoutas, 2024. "Managing other people's money: An agency theory in financial management industry," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 179-209, March.
    21. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza & Hegde, Prasad, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and institutional investment returns: The case of New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Gilbert, Thomas & Hrdlicka, Christopher & Kamara, Avraham, 2018. "The structure of information release and the factor structure of returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 546-566.
    23. Li, Zhuolei & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2022. "The influence of mobile trading on return dispersion and herding behavior," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    24. Martijn Boermans, 2022. "A literature review of securities holdings statistics research and a practitioner’s guide," Working Papers 757, DNB.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian learning; parameter uncertainty; mutual funds; flow-performance; Kalman filter; beta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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