Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime
AbstractChoosing an exchange rate regime is one of the most important decisions in macroeconomic policymaking. Some countries may peg their currency to gain credibility and control domestic inflation, while others may be more prone to float due to the larger incidence of real shocks. In spite of the abundant literature on the determinants of the exchange rate regime choice, the empirical literature has been unable to produce robust results on how countries select their exchange rate arrangements. Some argue that the problems of the empirical literature may rely on: (a) the failure of traditional measures of exchange rate regimes in capturing information of the regime in force (deeds) rather than the announced regime that is self-reported by countries (words). (b) The modeling of the dependent variable: whether the issue is to model the adoption of pegs (vis-à-vis floating) or choose within a wider array of regimes. (c) The use of a comprehensive set of determinants of exchange rate regime choice that takes into account factors associated to theories of choice determination (optimum currency area theory, financial approach, among others). This paper attempts to address the issues mentioned above using a sample of 110 countries with annual information over the period 1975-2005 using de facto exchange rate regime classifications and a comprehensive set of explanatory variables. We find the following stylized facts. First, factors associated with the optimum currency area approach are good predictors of adopting pegs: countries that are smaller in size and with stronger trade linkages are more likely to peg their currencies. Second, factors related to the financial approach are consistent with the impossible trinity: countries with higher openness and higher financial development are more likely to adopt floating regimes. Finally, we find that countries with high inflation and larger external and fiscal imbalances are more prone to adopt pegs.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 494.
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 1997. "Estimation of a Panel Data Sample Selection Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1335-1364, November.
- Arellano, M. & Honore, B., 2000.
"Panel Data Models: Some Recent Developments,"
0016, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001.
"The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations - Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Arellano, M & Carrasco, R, 1996.
"Binary Choice Panel Data Models with Predetermined Variables,"
9618, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
- Nora Lustig & Jaime Ros, 2011. "Latin America's Economic Challenges: Lessons for Emerging Economies," Working Papers 1112, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.