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Multimodality Test and Mixture Distributions: An Application to the Central Bank Expectation Survey

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  • Patricio Jaramillo
  • Juan Carlos Piantini

Abstract

This paper presents the Silverman multimodality test and mixture distributions methodology, applying both approaches to the Economic Expectations Survey of the Central Bank of Chile. The main results reflect the importance of permanently monitoring the implicit kernel distributions in each survey. Private analysts’ forecasts are found to have systematically been in line with the inflation targeting range, although during episodes where effective inflation fell outside the target range, the analysts encounter forecasting difficulties. Meanwhile, we observe the relevance of the Bank’s inflationary report for anchoring expectations, as the distributions become systematically more homogenous after publication.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 489.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:489

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  1. Bergstrom, P., 1999. "Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Econometrics -a Brief Survey," Papers 1999:2, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  3. Fabián Gredig & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "The Monetary Policy Horizon in Chile and Other Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 438, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel D., 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 5-17, December.
  5. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
  6. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-48, May.
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