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Measuring TFP: A Latent Variable Approach

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  • Rodrigo Fuentes, Marco Morales

Abstract

Despite the important role that total factor productivity (TFP) has played in growth literature, few attempts have been made to change the methodology to estimate it. This paper proposes a methodology based on state–space model to estimate TFP and its determinants. With this methodology it is possible to reduce the measurement of our ignorance. As a by-product, this estimation yields the capital share in output and the long-term growth rate. When applied to Chile, the estimation shows a capital share around 0.5 and long term growth of TFP around 1%. Capital accumulation tends to explain more the growth rate in the fast growth periods under the econometric estimation compared to the traditional growth accounting methodology. l II) could be helpful on this task.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 419.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:419

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  2. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 1991. "Technology adoption and growth," Staff Report 136, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  5. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
  6. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  7. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 164, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Prescott, Edward C, 1998. "Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-51, August.
  9. Chumacero, Romulo A. & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2006. "Chilean growth dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 197-214, March.
  10. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
  12. Baoline Chen & Peter A. Zadrozny, 2005. "Estimated U.S. Manufacturing Production Capital and Technology Based on an Estimated Dynamic Economic Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1526, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. Slade, Margaret E., 1989. "Modelling stochastic and cyclical components of technical change : An application of the Kalman filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 363-383, July.
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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