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Convergencia Regional en Chile: Nuevos Tests, Viejos Resultados

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  • Roberto Duncan
  • J. Rodrigo Fuentes

Abstract

The traditional tests of convergence implicitly test the unit root hypothesis for per capita income series. Despite that under the null the statistics do not have standard asymptotic distributions, most papers on this topic use standard distributions to evaluate this hypothesis, with the corresponding wrong inference. The goal of this paper is to determine the existence of convergence in per capita GDP and per capita income across the regions of Chile using not only the traditional cross-section and panel tests, but also the recently developed test for panel data that allows making the correct inference. The tests also include confidence intervals for the variance of per capita GDP, to check convergence in standard deviation, and a multimodality test, to analyze the existence of convergence clubs. The main conclusions are: (1) there is evidence of absolute ß convergence in per capita GDP and per capita income; (2) the convergence rate for income is higher than in GDP; however, both are low for international standards; (3) the convergence rate increases if the mining production share is included in the regression; (4) despite that the data seems to show the existence of convergence clubs, they are not statistically significant; (5) there is evidence of s convergence in GDP over the 1960-2000 period, but not in per capita income for the period 1987-2000.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 313.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:313

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  2. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
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  6. Canning, David, 1999. "Infrastructure's contribution to aggregate output," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2246, The World Bank.
  7. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Cristina Brasili & Luciano Gutierrez, 2004. "Regional convergence across European Union," Development and Comp Systems 0402002, EconWPA.
  9. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  10. Carlos Oyarzún & Iván Araya, 2001. "Long run dynamics of regional growth in Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1 Year 20), pages 69-78, June.
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Elusive Empirical Shadow of Growth Convergence," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm342, Yale School of Management.
  13. Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2002. "Is There Enough Evidence Against Absolute Convergence?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 176, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Evans, Paul, 1998. "Using Panel Data to Evaluate Growth Theories," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 295-306, May.
  15. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  16. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
  17. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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Cited by:
  1. Dusan Paredes, 2010. "Can NEG explains the spatial distribution of wages in developing countries? Evidence from Chile," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 02, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
  2. Bennett Sutton & Genevieve Lindow & Maria Isabel Serra & Gustavo Ramirez & Maria Fernanda Pazmino, 2006. "Regional Convergence in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/125, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Arroyo, Santiago & Bustamante, Christian, 2009. "Dimensión Territorial como Factor del Desarrollo Económico: Algunos Aportes Metodológicos para su Medición
    [Territorial Dimension like Factor of Economic Development: Some Contributions Methodo
    ," MPRA Paper 24394, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2009.
  4. Augusto Delgado & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2013. "Growth of the Peruvian Economy and Convergence in the Regions of Peru: 1970-2010," Documentos de Trabajo 2013-365, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  5. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Convergence and Long Run Uncertainty," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 391, Central Bank of Chile.

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