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Is There Enough Evidence Against Absolute Convergence?

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  • Rómulo A. Chumacero

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether or not the econometric methods usually applied to test for absolute convergence have provided this hypothesis a fair. I show that traditional (absolute and conditional) convergence tests are not consistent with even the simplest model that displays convergence. Furthermore, claims of divergence on the grounds of bimodalities in the distribution of GDP per capita can be made consistent with models in which neither divergence nor twin peaks are present in the long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 176.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:176

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  1. Ellen R. McGrattan & James A. Schmitz, Jr., 1998. "Explaining cross-country income differences," Staff Report 250, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  6. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
  7. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  9. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2002. "Absolute Convergence, Period," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 218, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Cho, Dongchul, 1996. "An Alternative Interpretation of Conditional Convergence Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 669-81, November.
  11. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  12. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
  14. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  15. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Bennett Sutton & Genevieve Lindow & Maria Isabel Serra & Gustavo Ramirez & Maria Fernanda Pazmino, 2006. "Regional Convergence in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/125, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Roberto Duncan & J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Convergencia Regional en Chile: Nuevos Tests, Viejos Resultados," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 313, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Convergence and Long Run Uncertainty," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 391, Central Bank of Chile.

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