Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Seasonal cointegration and the stability of the demand for money

Contents:

Author Info

  • Raimundo Soto
  • Matías Tapia

Abstract

Studies on money demand in both developed and developing countries coincide in reporting systematic over predictions of monetary aggregates, non-robust estimated parameters and out-of-sample forecast variances that are too large to guide monetary policy. Several explanations have been given for these failures, including dynamic misspecification, omitted variables such as financial innovations, and non observed components. This paper explores an alternative, simpler way to approach the instability of money demand using seasonal-cointegration techniques. Using Chilean data we find that seasonal cointegrating vectors exist and, when omitted from the estimation, account for a substantial fraction of the observed instability in money demand functions. Because seasonal cointegrating vectors act as additional long-run restrictions, they can substantially reduce the variance of forecast errors. The estimated demand for money in Chile is remarkably stable in spite of the profound structural and financial reforms carried out throughout the 1977-2000 period, parameters are robust and similar to those suggested by economic theories.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc103.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 103.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:103

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lee, Hahn Shik, 1992. "Maximum likelihood inference on cointegration and seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 1-47.
  2. Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1991. "Unit roots and seasonal unit roots in macroeconomic time series : Canadian evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 273-277, March.
  3. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 813, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September.
  5. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1994. "Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 259-272, April.
  6. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
  7. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
  8. Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "Nonstationary stochastic seasonality and the German M2 money demand function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 61-70, January.
  9. Lee, H.S. & Siklos, P.L., 1991. "Unit Roots and Seasonal Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Canadian Evidence," Working Papers 91143, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  10. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
  11. Ghysels, Eric, 1990. "Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 145-52, April.
  12. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796.
  13. Luis Oscar Herrera & Rodrigo Vergara, 1992. "Estabilidad de la Demanda de Dinero, Cointegración y Política Monetaria," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(86), pages 35-54.
  14. Olekalns, Nilss, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonally adjusted data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 273-279.
  15. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.