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Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries

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Listed:
  • Susmita Dasgupta
  • Benoit Laplante
  • Siobhan Murray
  • David Wheeler

Abstract

As the climate changes during the 21st century, larger cyclonic storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. As conditions worsen, variations in coastal morphology will magnify the effects in some areas, while largely insulating others. In this paper, we explore the implications for 84 developing countries and 577 of their cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Combining the most recent scientific and demographic information, we estimate the future impact of climate change on storm surges that will strike coastal populations, economies and ecosystems. We focus on the distribution of heightened impacts, because we believe that greater knowledge of their probable variation will be useful for local and national planners, as well as international donors. Our results suggest gross inequality in the heightened impact of future disasters, with the most severe effects limited to a small number of countries and a small cluster of large cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Siobhan Murray & David Wheeler, 2009. "Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries," Working Papers 182, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. Christopher W. Landsea, 2005. "Hurricanes and global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7071), pages 11-12, December.
    3. Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011. "Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
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    1. Md Aboul Fazal Younus, 2017. "An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to cyclones through impact assessment guidelines: a bottom-up case study from Bangladesh coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1437-1459, December.
    2. Ke Wang & Yongsheng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Quanyi Huang, 2021. "A study into the spatiotemporal distribution of typhoon storm surge disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1237-1256, August.
    3. Julia Kloos & Niklas Baumert, 2015. "Preventive resettlement in anticipation of sea level rise: a choice experiment from Alexandria, Egypt," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 99-121, March.
    4. Aaron Opdyke & Desmond Chiang & Anthony Tsang & Jacob Smyth, 2022. "Benchmarking household storm surge risk perceptions to scientific models in the Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1285-1305, November.
    5. Simon Lloyd & R. Kovats & Zaid Chalabi & Sally Brown & Robert Nicholls, 2016. "Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 441-455, February.
    6. Pugatch, Todd, 2019. "Tropical storms and mortality under climate change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 172-182.
    7. Amna Al Ruheili & John Radke, 2020. "Visualization of 2002 storm surge along the coast of Dhofar, case study of Oman," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 501-517, January.
    8. Xiaotong Sui & Mingzhao Hu & Haoyun Wang & Lingdi Zhao, 2023. "Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2363-2381, March.
    9. Pavel Tkalich & P. Vethamony & M. Babu & Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, 2013. "Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1345-1362, April.

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    Keywords

    climate change; developing countries; disasters; coastal cities; storm surges; coastal populations; economic activity;
    All these keywords.

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