Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries
AbstractAs the climate changes during the 21st century, larger cyclonic storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. As conditions worsen, variations in coastal morphology will magnify the effects in some areas, while largely insulating others. In this paper, we explore the implications for 84 developing countries and 577 of their cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities with populations greater than 100,000. Combining the most recent scientific and demographic information, we estimate the future impact of climate change on storm surges that will strike coastal populations, economies and ecosystems. We focus on the distribution of heightened impacts, because we believe that greater knowledge of their probable variation will be useful for local and national planners, as well as international donors. Our results suggest gross inequality in the heightened impact of future disasters, with the most severe effects limited to a small number of countries and a small cluster of large cities.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Global Development in its series Working Papers with number 182.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.cgdev.org
climate change; developing countries; disasters; coastal cities; storm surges; coastal populations; economic activity;
Other versions of this item:
- Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Siobhan Murray & David Wheeler, 2010. "Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries," Working Papers id:2437, eSocialSciences.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2009-10-03 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2009-10-03 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011.
"Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen,"
Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
- Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Patmore & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Muir-Wood, 2008. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Risk in Port Cities: A Case Study on Copenhagen," OECD Environment Working Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
- Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
- R. J. Nicholls & S. Hanson & Celine Herweijer & Nicola Patmore & Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Jean Chateau & Robert Muir-Wood, 2008. "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates," OECD Environment Working Papers 1, OECD Publishing.
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