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Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Risk in Port Cities: A Case Study on Copenhagen

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  • Stéphane Hallegatte
  • Nicola Patmore
  • Olivier Mestre
  • Patrice Dumas
  • Jan Corfee-Morlot
  • Celine Herweijer
  • Robert Muir-Wood

Abstract

This study illustrates a methodology to assess economic impacts of climate change at city scale, focusing on sea level rise and storm surge. It is based on a statistical analysis of past storm surges in the studied city, matched to a geographical-information analysis of the population and asset exposure in the city, for various sea levels and storm surge characteristics. An assessment of direct losses in case of storm surge (i.e. of the damages to buildings and building content) can then be computed and the corresponding indirect losses – in the form of production and job losses, reconstruction duration, amongst other loses – deduced, allowing a risk analysis of the effectiveness of coastal flood protections, including risk changes due to climate change and sea level rise. This methodology is applied in the city of Copenhagen, capital of Denmark, which is potentially vulnerable to the effects of variability in sea level, as a low lying city....

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Environment Working Papers with number 3.

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Date of creation: 08 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:3-en

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Keywords: sustainable development; government policy; climate change; CIS; natural disasters; global warming;

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References

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  1. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Policy Benefits at City Scale: A Conceptual Framework," OECD Environment Working Papers 4, OECD Publishing.
  2. Hallegatte, Stephane & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Dumas, Patrice, 2007. "Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 330-340, April.
  3. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Kennedy, Christopher & Corfee-Morlot, Jan, 2013. "Past performance and future needs for low carbon climate resilient infrastructure– An investment perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 773-783.
  2. Jie Yin & Dapeng Yu & Zhane Yin & Jun Wang & Shiyuan Xu, 2013. "Modelling the combined impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced flooding of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 919-932, August.
  3. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
  4. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Policy Benefits at City Scale: A Conceptual Framework," OECD Environment Working Papers 4, OECD Publishing.
  5. Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Disasters. A Review of Modeling Practices," Working Papers 2013.104, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
  7. Austin Becker & Satoshi Inoue & Martin Fischer & Ben Schwegler, 2012. "Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-29, January.
  8. Hallegatte, Stephane & Przyluski, Valentin, 2010. "The economics of natural disasters : concepts and methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5507, The World Bank.
  9. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Siobhan Murray & David Wheeler, 2010. "Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries," Working Papers id:2437, eSocialSciences.
  10. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Ja, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
  11. Paul Kirshen & Samuel Merrill & Peter Slovinsky & Norman Richardson, 2012. "Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 919-931, August.
  12. Isaac Boateng, 2012. "An assessment of the physical impacts of sea-level rise and coastal adaptation: a case study of the eastern coast of Ghana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 273-293, September.
  13. Jun Wang & Wei Gao & Shiyuan Xu & Lizhong Yu, 2012. "Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of Shanghai, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 537-558, December.
  14. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.
  15. Christine Shepard & Vera Agostini & Ben Gilmer & Tashya Allen & Jeff Stone & William Brooks & Michael Beck, 2012. "Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 727-745, January.
  16. Stasinopoulos, Georgios, 2009. "Economic impacts of climate change on cities: A survey of the existing literature," HWWI Policy Papers 1-18, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  17. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
  18. Keqi Zhang & Yuepeng Li & Huiqing Liu & Hongzhou Xu & Jian Shen, 2013. "Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 487-500, May.

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