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A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes

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Author Info

  • Susan Hanson

    ()

  • Robert Nicholls

    ()

  • N. Ranger
  • S. Hallegatte
  • J. Corfee-Morlot
  • C. Herweijer
  • J. Chateau

Abstract

This paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world’s large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes. The analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered) are currently exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. For assets, the total value exposed in 2005 across all cities considered is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD) with USA, Japan and the Netherlands being the countries with the highest values. By the 2070s, total population exposed could grow more than threefold due to the combined effects of sea-level rise, subsidence, population growth and urbanisation with asset exposure increasing to more than ten times current levels or approximately 9% of projected global GDP in this period. On the global-scale, population growth, socio-economic growth and urbanization are the most important drivers of the overall increase in exposure particularly in developing countries, as low-lying areas are urbanized. Climate change and subsidence can significantly exacerbate this increase in exposure. Exposure is concentrated in a few cities: collectively Asia dominates population exposure now and in the future and also dominates asset exposure by the 2070s. Importantly, even if the environmental or socio-economic changes were smaller than assumed here the underlying trends would remain. This research shows the high potential benefits from risk-reduction planning and policies at the city scale to address the issues raised by the possible growth in exposure. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 104 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 89-111

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:104:y:2011:i:1:p:89-111

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

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  1. Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011. "Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
  2. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau, 2008. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 653, OECD Publishing.
  3. Jan Corfee-Morlot & Ian Cochran & Stéphane Hallegatte & Pierre-Jonathan Teasdale, 2011. "Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 169-197, January.
  4. R. J. Nicholls & S. Hanson & Celine Herweijer & Nicola Patmore & Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Jean Chateau & Robert Muir-Wood, 2008. "Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates," OECD Environment Working Papers 1, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866437 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Martin Visbeck & Ulrike Kronfeld-Goharani & Barbara Neumann & Wilfried Rickels & Jörn Schmidt & Erik van Doorn, 2013. "Establishing a Sustainable Development Goal for Oceans and Coasts to Face the Challenges of our Future Ocean," Kiel Working Papers 1847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine & Bibas, Ruben & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : resilience and efficiency in the global reinsurance market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5807, The World Bank.
  4. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Ja, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
  5. Jie Yin & Dapeng Yu & Zhane Yin & Jun Wang & Shiyuan Xu, 2013. "Modelling the combined impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced flooding of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 919-932, August.
  6. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Policy Benefits at City Scale: A Conceptual Framework," OECD Environment Working Papers 4, OECD Publishing.
  7. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2013. "An Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk," Working Papers 2013.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Dasgupta, Susmita & Kamal, Farhana Akhter & Khan, Zahirul Huque & Choudhury, Sharifuzzaman & Nishat, Ainun, 2014. "River salinity and climate change : evidence from coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6817, The World Bank.
  9. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00800460 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Brecht, Henrike & Deichmann, Uwe & Wang, Hyoung Gun, 2013. "A global urban risk index," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6506, The World Bank.
  11. Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011. "Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
  12. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
  13. Elshennawy, Abeer & Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2013. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt," MPRA Paper 47703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Susmita Dasgupta & Asvani Gosain & Sandhya Rao & Subhendu Roy & Maria Sarraf, 2013. "A megacity in a changing climate: the case of Kolkata," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 747-766, February.
  15. Kennedy, Christopher & Corfee-Morlot, Jan, 2013. "Past performance and future needs for low carbon climate resilient infrastructure– An investment perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 773-783.

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