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Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates

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Author Info

  • R. J. Nicholls
  • S. Hanson
  • Celine Herweijer
  • Nicola Patmore
  • Stéphane Hallegatte
  • Jan Corfee-Morlot
  • Jean Chateau
  • Robert Muir-Wood

Abstract

This global screening study makes a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding due to storm surge and damage due to high winds. This assessment also investigates how climate change is likely to impact each port city's exposure to coastal flooding by the 2070s, alongside subsidence and population growth and urbanisation. The study provides a much more comprehensive analysis than earlier assessments, focusing on the 136 port cities around the world that have more than one million inhabitants in 2005. The analysis demonstrates that a large number of people are already exposed to coastal flooding in large port cities. Across all cities, about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered here) are exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. For present-day conditions (2005), the top ten cities in terms of exposed population are estimated to be Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Greater New York, Osaka-Kobe, Alexandria and New Orleans; almost equally split between developed and developing countries. When assets are considered, the current distribution becomes more heavily weighted towards developed countries, as the wealth of the cities becomes important. The top 10 cities in terms of assets exposed are Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-St Petersburg and Virginia Beach. These cities contain 60% of the total exposure, but are from only three (wealthy) countries: USA, Japan and the Netherlands. The total value of assets exposed in 2005 is across all cities considered here is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD)... Cette étude globale propose une première estimation de l'exposition des grandes villes portuaires aux inondations côtières, dues aux marées de tempête, et aux vents forts. Elle s'intéresse en particulier aux effets du changement climatique sur l'exposition de chacune de ces villes à l'horizon des années 2070. Cette évaluation comprend les 136 villes côtières qui ont plus d'un million d'habitants dans le monde en 2005. Elle est donc beaucoup plus exhaustive que les estimations disponibles jusqu'à présent. Cette analyse montre que la population des villes portuaires exposée aux inondations côtières est déjà très importante. Dans les villes considérées par cette étude, environ 40 millions de personnes (soit 0.6% de la population mondiale et environ un habitant sur dix de ces villes) sont exposés à l?inondation centennale (celle dont la probabilité annuelle est de 1% et le temps de retour 100 ans). Dans les conditions présentes (en 2005), les dix villes les plus exposées en termes de population sont Bombay, Canton, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh Ville, Calcutta, l?agglomération New-yorkaise, Osaka- Kobe, Alexandrie et la Nouvelle Orléans. Ces villes sont également réparties entre pays développés et pays en développement. Quand on s'intéresse au patrimoine exposé, les pays développé deviennent beaucoup plus représentés, car le niveau de vie est alors un facteur essentiel. Les dix villes les plus exposées en terme de patrimoine sont Miami, l'agglomération New-yorkaise, la Nouvelle Orléans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-Saint-Petersbourg, et Virginia Beach. Ces villes représentent 60% de l'exposition totale, mais sont dans seulement trois pays riches : les USA, le Japon et la Hollande. La valeur totale du patrimoine exposé en 2005 est estimée à 3.000 milliards de dollars américains, ce qui correspond à environ 5% du PIB annuel mondial...

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Environment Working Papers with number 1.

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Date of creation: 19 Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:1-en

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Keywords: sustainable development; climate change; flood management; coastal zones; environment & development; global warming; public policy; natural disasters;

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Cited by:
  1. Dagoberto Alvarado-Aguilar & José Jiménez & Robert Nicholls, 2012. "Flood hazard and damage assessment in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) to relative sea level rise," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 1301-1321, July.
  2. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Siobhan Murray & David Wheeler, 2010. "Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries," Working Papers id:2437, eSocialSciences.
  3. World Bank & United Nations, 2010. "Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters : The Economics of Effective Prevention," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2512.
  4. Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Singh, Kanhaiya & Thangavelu, Shandre & Venkatachalam, Anbumozhi & Perera, Kumidini, 2011. "Climate Change and Poverty Reduction—Where Does Official Development Assistance Money Go?," ADBI Working Papers 318, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  5. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Mozambique," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12748, The World Bank.
  6. Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2013. "Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Disasters. A Review of Modeling Practices," Working Papers 2013.104, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Lempert, Robert & Kalra, Nidhi & Peyraud, Suzanne & Mao, Zhimin & Tan, Sinh Bach & Cira, Dean & Lotsch, Alexander, 2013. "Ensuring robust flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh city," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6465, The World Bank.
  8. Stasinopoulos, Georgios, 2009. "Economic impacts of climate change on cities: A survey of the existing literature," HWWI Policy Papers 1-18, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  9. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David W., 2008. "Climate change risk and response," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1070, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  10. Olivier Bos & Béatrice Roussillon & Paul Schweinzer, 2013. "Agreeing on Efficient Emissions Reduction," CESifo Working Paper Series 4345, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. World Bank, 2011. "Climate Resilient Ningbo Project : Local Resilience Action Plan, Volume 1. Final Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12823, The World Bank.
  12. Omran Frihy & Mahmoud El-Sayed, 2013. "Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1215-1237, December.
  13. World Bank, 2011. "India - Vulnerability of Kolkata metropolitan area to increased precipitation in a changing climate," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2818, The World Bank.
  14. Austin Becker & Satoshi Inoue & Martin Fischer & Ben Schwegler, 2012. "Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 5-29, January.
  15. Fatima Shah & Federica Ranghieri, 2012. "A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters : Adapting Experiences from Vietnam’s Cities to Other Cities," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2235.
  16. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Murray, Siobhan & Wheeler, David, 2009. "Sea-level rise and storm surges : a comparative analysis of impacts in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4901, The World Bank.
  17. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.

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