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The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867-2011

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  • J Stephen Ferris
  • Stanley L. Winer
  • Bernard Grofman

Abstract

We combine Duverger’s Law (1954) with Demsetz’s (1968) theory of natural monopoly to provide a novel perspective on electoral competitiveness in a single member district, plurality rule system. In the framework we develop, competitiveness depends on the contestability of elections, which declines as party fragmentation exceeds the long run level predicted by Duverger’s Law. We provide support for this Duverger-Demsetz perspective by studying the relationship between the concentration of vote shares and a new index of electoral contestability over the history of the Canadian parliamentary system from 1867. Extension of the argument to proportional electoral systems is also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • J Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer & Bernard Grofman, 2016. "The Duverger-Demsetz Perspective on Electoral Competitiveness and Fragmentation: With Application to the Canadian Parliamentary System, 1867-2011," CESifo Working Paper Series 5752, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5752
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferris, J. Stephen & Voia, Marcel-Cristian, 2023. "Do rival political parties enforce government efficiency? Evidence from Canada 1867–2021," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Bharatee Bhusana, Ferris, J Stephen Dash & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Measuring Electoral Competitiveness: With Application to the Indian States," CESifo Working Paper Series 7216, CESifo.
    3. J Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Political Competitiveness and Fiscal Structure: A Time Series Analysis. Canada, 1870 - 2015," CESifo Working Paper Series 7220, CESifo.
    4. Stanley L. Winer & J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2021. "Political competitiveness and the private–public structure of public expenditure: a model and empirics for the Indian States," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1430-1471, December.
    5. J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer & Derek Olmstead, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Political Party Equilibrium: The Evolution of ENP in Canada, 1870–2015," Carleton Economic Papers 18-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 31 Jul 2019.
    6. J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2021. "Does Income Inequality enter into an Aggregate Model of Voter Turnout? Evidence from Canada and Indian States," Carleton Economic Papers 21-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    7. Zhihao Yu, 2022. "Why Are Tobacco and Alcohol Control Policies So Different?–A Political-Economy Explanation," Carleton Economic Papers 22-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Stephen FERRIS & Marcel-Cristian VOIA, 2022. "Do Rival Political Parties Enforce Government Efficiency? Evidence from Canada, 1867 - 2021," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2948, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Christian Voia, 2019. "Elections, Economic Outcomes and Policy in Canada: 1870 - 2015," Carleton Economic Papers 19-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    10. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2021. "Elections, economic outcomes and policy choices in Canada: 1870 – 2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(16), pages 1840-1855, April.
    11. Bharatee Bhusana DASH & Stephen FERRIS & Marcel-Cristian VOIA, 2022. "Inequality, Transaction Costs and Voter Turnout: evidence from Canadian Provinces and Indian States," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2953, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    12. Pinaki Chakraborty & Bharatee B. Dash & J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2015. "The Privateness of Public Expenditure with Application to Indian States," Carleton Economic Papers 15-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electoral competition; economic competition; contestability; volatility adjusted vote margin; safe seats; marginal seats; Duverger; Demsetz;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General

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