US Disposable Personal Income and Housing Price Index: A Fractional Integration Analysis
AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between US disposable personal income (DPI) and house price index (HPI) during the last twenty years applying fractional integration and long-range dependence techniques to monthly data from January 1991 to July 2010. The empirical findings indicate that the stochastic properties of the two series are such that cointegration cannot hold between them, as mean reversion occurs in the case of DPI but not of HPI. Also, recursive analysis shows that the estimated fractional parameter is relatively stable over time for DPI whilst it increases throughout the sample for HPI. Interestingly, the estimates tend to converge toward the unit root case after 2008 once the bubble had burst. The implications for explaining the recent financial crisis and choosing appropriate policy actions are discussed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3208.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
personal disposable income; house price index; fractional integration;
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2010. "US Disposable Personal Income and Housing Price Index: A Fractional Integration Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1070, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "US Disposable Personal Income and Housing Price Index: A Fractional Integration Analysis," Faculty Working Papers 03/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
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