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A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks

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Author Info
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ()
Luis A. Gil-Alana ()

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Abstract

This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises the residual sum of squares (RSS). Monte Carlo experiments show that this method for detecting breaks performs well in large samples. As an illustration, we estimate a trivariate VAR including prices, employment and GDP in both the US and Mexico. For the subsample preceding the break our findings are similar to those of earlier studies based on a standard VAR approach in both countries, in the sense that the variables exhibit integer degrees of integration. On the contrary, the series are found to be fractionally integrated after the break, with the fractional differencing parameters being higher than 1 in the case of Mexico.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1950.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1950

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Related research
Keywords: multivariate models; fractional integration; structural breaks;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  4. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
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  6. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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