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Structural Change in OECD Comparative Advantage

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  • Steven Brakman
  • Robert Inklaar
  • Charles van Marrewijk

Abstract

In the post-war period, the goods composition of trade in OECD countries has changed considerably. We analyze the evolution of comparative advantage using a detailed trade data set and a new analytical tool: the harmonic (weighted) mass index, which enables us to identify periods of structural change. We then analyze which forces may be responsible for the main structural changes, which primarily took place in many OECD countries in the mid 1980s. We argue that neither the rise of China and India nor the deregulation programs in many OECD countries is likely to have been the main cause. Instead, the interaction between the real and monetary economy (possibly fuelled by nominal rigidities and delays in exchange rate pass through) as measured by the large swing in the real effective exchange rate of the dollar in the 1980s is our primary candidate. In view of similar recent large swings, we argue it is likely that the OECD countries will again go through substantial structural adjustments in the near future.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-04/cesifo1_wp3033.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3033.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3033

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Keywords: Balassa-index; structural change; comparative advantage;

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References

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  1. Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "It's a big world after all: on the economic impact of location and distance," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 411-437.
  2. Davis, D.R. & Weinstein, D.E., 1999. "An Account of Global Factor Trade," Working Papers 435, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  3. Brezis, Elise S & Krugman, Paul R & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1211-19, December.
  4. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
  5. Jeroen Hinloopen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2006. "Comparative Advantage, the Rank-size Rule, and Zipf's Law," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-100/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204.
  7. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta, 2003. "Regulation, productivity and growth: OECD evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(36), pages 9-72, 04.
  8. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paul Conway & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2006. "Product Market Regulation in the Non-Manufacturing Sectors of OECD Countries: Measurement and Highlights," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 530, OECD Publishing.
  10. Jeroen Hinloopen & Rien Wagenvoort & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "A K-sample Homogeneity Test based on the Quantification of the p-p Plot," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-100/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Jeroen Hinloopen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2005. "Comparing Distributions: The Harmonic Mass Index," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-122/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Dec 2005.
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Cited by:
  1. Ioannis Bournakis & Michela Vecchi & Francesco Venturini, 2011. "Offshoring and Specialisation: Are Industries Moving Abroad?," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 98/2011, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.

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