IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10752.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Navigating Trade Policy Shocks: How Firms Reallocate Exports in Third Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ning Meng
  • Feicheng Wang

Abstract

This paper explores an under-researched margin of firms’ export adjustments in response to negative trade policy shocks: export reallocation across markets. Using detailed Chinese customs data spanning from 2000 to 2015 and a difference-in-differences approach, we compare export dynamics between multi-destination exporters that were subject to antidumping (AD) duties and those that were not affected. Our empirical results show that, on average, AD duties reduced firms’ entry into new markets and increased their exit from existing markets. These effects were less pronounced for exports to high-income destinations and high-quality products. Continuing exporters, however, raised their exports to non-AD markets after being affected by AD duties and this effect was stronger for high-income destination exports. Further analysis underscores the role of quality upgrading in explaining the trade-promoting effect of AD duties in third countries. Our findings reconcile the seemingly contradictory trade diversion and tariff echoing effects of AD duties documented in earlier studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ning Meng & Feicheng Wang, 2023. "Navigating Trade Policy Shocks: How Firms Reallocate Exports in Third Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 10752, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10752.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2006. "Policy externalities: How US antidumping affects Japanese exports to the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 696-714, September.
    2. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    3. Irene Brambilla & Daniel Lederman & Guido Porto, 2012. "Exports, Export Destinations, and Skills," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3406-3438, December.
    4. David Hummels & Alexandre Skiba, 2004. "Shipping the Good Apples Out? An Empirical Confirmation of the Alchian-Allen Conjecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1384-1402, December.
    5. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    6. Ahn, JaeBin & Khandelwal, Amit K. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2011. "The role of intermediaries in facilitating trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 73-85, May.
    7. Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang & Zhang, Yan, 2018. "How do exporters adjust export product scope and product mix to react to antidumping?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 20-41.
    8. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2007. "Trade deflection and trade depression," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 176-201, May.
    9. Nguyen Trong Hoai & Nguyen Truong Toan & Pham Hoang Van, 2017. "Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti-dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1128-1154, June.
    10. Paula Bustos, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Exports, and Technology Upgrading: Evidence on the Impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 304-340, February.
    11. Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido G., 2016. "High-income export destinations, quality and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 21-35.
    12. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2169-2195, October.
    13. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.
    14. Thomas J. Prusa, 2021. "On the spread and impact of anti-dumping," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Thomas J Prusa (ed.), Economic Effects of Antidumping, chapter 4, pages 45-65, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Jabbour, Liza & Tao, Zhigang & Vanino, Enrico & Zhang, Yan, 2019. "The good, the bad and the ugly: Chinese imports, European Union anti-dumping measures and firm performance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-20.
    16. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
    17. Patrick Messerlin, 1989. "The ec antidumping regulations: A first economic appraisal, 1980–85," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(3), pages 563-587, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meng, Ning & Milner, Chris & Song, Huasheng, 2020. "Antidumping and heterogeneous quality adjustment of multi-product firms: Evidence from Chinese exporters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 147-161.
    2. Feicheng Wang & Chris Milner & Juliane Scheffel, 2022. "Export destination and the skill premium: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 1057-1094, May.
    3. Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of antidumping duties: Evidence from the 2004 EU enlargement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of anti-dumping duties: Firm-level evidence from China," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Cui Hu & Faqin Lin & Yong Tan & Yihong Tang, 2019. "How exporting firms respond to technical barriers to trade?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1400-1426, May.
    6. Jiemiao Dong & Yinxia Mi & Zhuangxiong Yu, 2022. "Industrial plans, export destinations and product quality," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 812-840, March.
    7. Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang & Zhang, Yan, 2013. "How do exporters respond to antidumping investigations?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 290-300.
    8. Federico Bernini & Ezequiel Garcia Lembergman, 2020. "The impact of import barriers on firm performance: Evidence from Import Licenses in Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4314, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    9. Andrea Ciani, 2021. "Income inequality and the quality of imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 375-416, May.
    10. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Jaimovich, Esteban & Madzharova, Boryana & Merella, Vincenzo, 2023. "Inside the white box: Unpacking the determinants of quality and vertical specialization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Longzhou Wang, 2023. "The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Firms’ Product Quality: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(3), pages 645-672, November.
    13. Khan, Bilal M. & Xia, Junjie, 2016. "Export Destination, Skill Utilization and Skill Premium in Chinese Manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 72408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2016. "The connection between imported intermediate inputs and exports: Evidence from Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 86-101.
    15. Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2018. "Diagnóstico y Visión de la Inserción Comercial Argentina en el Mundo," IIE, Working Papers 115, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    16. Kalina Manova & Zhiwei Zhang, 2012. "Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 379-436.
    17. Martin, Julien & Mayneris, Florian, 2015. "High-end variety exporters defying gravity: Micro facts and aggregate implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 55-71.
    18. Stefano Schiavo & Chiara Tomasi & Min Zhu, 2021. "Anti-dumping activities against China: patterns and effects," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 7-30, April.
    19. Chandra, Piyush & Long, Cheryl, 2013. "Anti-dumping Duties and their Impact on Exporters: Firm Level Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 169-186.
    20. Ana P. Fernandes & Heiwai Tang, 2020. "Fast Fashion: Theory and Evidence from Portuguese Textile and Clothing Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 8125, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    antidumping; multi-destination firms; within-firm adjustment; quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.