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County-Level Estimates of the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers

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  • David C Ribar

Abstract

This study examines low-skill wage and employment opportunities for men and women at the county level over the period 1989-96. Currently, reliable direct measures of wages and employment rates for different demographic and skill groups are only available for large geographic areas such as regions and populous states or at infrequent intervals (e.g., from the Decennial Census) for some smaller areas. This study constructs indirect annual measures for all counties from 1989-96 by combining skill-specific information on earnings and employment from the Sample Edited Detail File (SEDF) of the 1990 Decennial Census and the 1990-97 Annual Demographic files of the Current Population Survey (CPS) with annual industry-specific information from the Regional Economic Information System (REIS). Special versions of the SEDF and CPS files that identify county of residence are used. The study regresses the low-skill wage and employment data from the SEDF and CPS files on a set of personal variables from the combined files and local employment measures derived from the REIS. The wage regressions are corrected for selectivity from the employment decision and account for county-specific effects as well as general time effects. Estimates from the regressions are then combined with the available employment data from the REIS to impute wage and employment rates for low-skill adults across counties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 00-11.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:00-11

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Keywords: CES; economic; research; micro; data; microdata; chief; economist;

References

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  1. Eric A. Hanushek, 1981. "Alternative Models of Earnings Determination and Labor Market Structures," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 16(2), pages 238-259.
  2. John M. Fitzgerald, 1995. "Local labor markets and local area effects on welfare duration," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 43-67.
  3. David N. Figlio & James P. Ziliak, 1999. "Welfare Reform, the Business Cycle, and the Decline in AFDC Caseloads," JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research 77, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  4. John Bound & Harry J. Holzer, 1991. "Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males," NBER Working Papers 3715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 1999. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 99-54, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  6. Thomas Mroz, . "The Sensitivity of an Empirical Model of Married Women's Hours of Work to Economic and Statistical Assumptions," University of Chicago - Population Research Center, Chicago - Population Research Center 84-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  7. David Neumark & Mark Schweitzer & William Wascher, 1998. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on the Distribution of Family Incomes: A Non-Parametric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lillard, Lee & Smith, James P & Welch, Finis, 1986. "What Do We Really Know about Wages? The Importance of Nonreporting and Census Imputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 489-506, June.
  9. Timothy J. Bartik, 1993. "The Effects of Local Labor Demand on Individual Labor Market Outcomes for Diffrerent Demographic Groups and the Poor," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 93-23, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  10. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier.
  11. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S111-43, June.
  12. Hilary Hoynes, 1999. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Timothy J. Bartik, 1999. "Aggregate Effects in Local Labor Markets of Supply and Demand Shocks," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 99-57, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  14. David Neumark, 1999. "The Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Increases: Evidence from a Pre-specified Research Design," NBER Working Papers 7171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Richard B. Freeman, 1982. "Economic Determinants of Geographic and Individual Variation in the Labor Market Position of Young Persons," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 115-154 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Richard Blundell & Howard Reed & Thomas M. Stoker, 2003. "Interpreting Aggregate Wage Growth: The Role of Labor Market Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1114-1131, September.
  17. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  18. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert & Runkle, David, 1988. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1232-66, December.
  19. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-42, June.
  20. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
  21. Richard B. Freeman & William M. Rodgers III, 1999. "Area Economic Conditions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Men in the 1990s Expansion," NBER Working Papers 7073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Richard B. Freeman, 1990. "Employment and Earnings of Disadvantaged Young Men in a Labor Shortage Economy," NBER Working Papers 3444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. John M. Fitzgerald & David Ribar, 2001. "The Impact of Welfare Waivers on Female Headship Decisions," JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research 247, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  2. John Fitzgerald & David Ribar, 2004. "Transitions in Welfare Participation and Female Headship," Working Papers 04-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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