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Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads

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Author Info
Timothy J. Bartik
Randall W. Eberts

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Abstract

Welfare caseloads have dropped dramatically in recent years, prompting many policy makers to declare an end to welfare as we have known it. The recent decline in caseloads has occurred concurrently with two distinct events. First, most states have restructured their welfare programs to place greater emphasis on getting welfare recipients into jobs. Second, the economy has exhibited strong employment growth with historically low unemployment rates throughout this period, providing unprecedented opportunities for welfare recipients to find employment.

Several studies have addressed the effect of business cycles on welfare caseloads. The approaches taken by these studies range from national-level time series analyses to state-level pooled cross section, time series studies. Some micro-level studies of individual welfare recipients, while not necessarily directly addressing the effect of business cycles on caseloads, are pertinent to this issue as well. Our proposed study relates most closely to four recent analyses that estimate the effect of economic conditions on welfare caseloads. The purpose of this paper is to extend the current models to include additional measures of labor market conditions that may affect the variation in welfare caseloads.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research in its series JCPR Working Papers with number 74.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wop:jopovw:74

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. J. P. Ziliak & D. N. Figlio & E. E. Davis & L. S. Connolly, . "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or Economic Growth?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1151-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 1993. "Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-96, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Chinhui Juhn, 1994. "Wage Inequality and Industrial Change: Evidence from Five Decades," NBER Working Papers 4684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  5. Krueger, Alan B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Efficiency Wages and the Inter-industry Wage Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 259-93, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rebecca M. Blank, 1997. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," NBER Working Papers 6343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Timothy J. Bartik, 1997. "Short-Term Employment Persistence for Welfare Recipients: The "Effects" of Wages, Industry, Occupation and Firm," Staff Working Papers 97-46, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert Moffitt, 2002. "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program," NBER Working Papers 8749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Susan E Mayer, 2000. "Why Welfare Caseloads Fluctuate: A Review of Research on AFDC, SSI, and the Food Stamps Program," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/07, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  3. Corrado Andini, 2005. "Unemployment and Welfare Participation in a Structural VAR: Rethinking the 1990s in the United States (Revised)," HEW 0501005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Swindell, James W., Jr. & Martin, Steven W. & Reinschmiedt, Lynn & Hudson, Darren, 1999. "Demand For Tanf In Mississippi," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21680, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. David C Ribar, 2000. "County-Level Estimates of the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers," Working Papers 00-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  6. Davis, Elizabeth & Weber, Bruce, 1999. "Employment And Earnings Of The Working Poor In Rural And Urban Labor Markets," 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND 35665, Western Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  7. Harry J. Holzer & Michael A. Stoll, 2000. "Employer Demand for Welfare Recipients By Race," JCPR Working Papers 197, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    Other versions:
  8. Luis Ayala & César Pérez, . "Macroeconomic Conditions, Institutional Factors And Demographic Structure: What Causes Welfare Caseloads?," Working Papers 2-03, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Corrado Andini, 2004. "Unemployment and Welfare Participation in a Structural VAR: Rethinking the 1990S in the United States," CELPE Discussion Papers 80, CELPE (Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy), University of Salerno, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert F. Schoeni & Rebecca M. Blank, 2000. "What has Welfare Reform Accomplished? Impacts on Welfare Participation, Employment, Income, Poverty, and Family Structure," NBER Working Papers 7627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Jeffrey Grogger & Steven Haider & Jacob Klerman & Elizabeth Roth, 2003. "The Relationship Between the Economy and the Welfare Caseload: A Dynamic Approach," Working Papers 03-06, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio, 2000. "Geographic Differences in AFDC and Food Stamp Caseloads in the Welfare Reform Era," JCPR Working Papers 180, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  13. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Timothy J. Bartik, 2002. "Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Labor Market Spillover Effects of Welfare Reform," Staff Working Papers 02-78, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dan A. Black & Terra G. McKinnish & Seth G.Sanders, 2000. "Are We Understating the Impact of Economic Conditions on Welfare Rolls?," Center for Policy Research Policy Briefs 18, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. J. P. Ziliak & C. Gundersen & D. N. Figlio, . "Welfare Reform and Food Stamp Caseload Dynamics," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1215-00, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  17. Mark Henry & Willis Lewis & Lynn Reinschmiedt & Darren Hudson, 2000. "Reducing Food Stamp and Welfare Caseloads in the South: Are Rural Areas Less Likely to Succeed Than Urban Centers?," JCPR Working Papers 188, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  18. Frank Howell, 2000. "Prospects for 'Job Matching' in the Welfare-to-Work Transition: Labor Market Capacity for Sustaining the Absorption of Mississippi's TANF Recipients," JCPR Working Papers 202, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  19. Jacob A. Klerman & Steven J. Haider, 2001. "A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload: Insights from California Economic Conditions," Working Papers 01-02, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
  20. Peter R. Mueser & Christopher T. King, 2004. "Welfare and Work in the 1990s: Experiences in Six Cities," Working Papers 0409, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  21. V. Joseph Hotz & John Karl Scholz, 2006. "Examining the Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on the Labor Market Participation of Families on Welfare," NBER Working Papers 11968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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