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Conditional political budget cycles in Argentine provinces

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Author Info
Daniel Lema

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Abstract

This paper presents evidence of electoraly-motivated changes in the budget balance, public expenditures, composition of public expenditures and provincial revenues in Argentine provinces. The empirical study is made using panel data analysis for 22 provinces during the period 1985-2001. Unconditional results show that conditioning on the alignment of provincial and federal executives (same political party in power) there is evidence of systematic changes in fiscal policies around elections. The observed changes support the predictions of rational opportunistic models of PBC. In election years, total provincial expenditures increase in aligned provinces, without affecting the fiscal balance, because to the increased discretional transfers from the federal government supporting the provincial incumbent federal revenues. By contrast, deficit increases for unaligned provinces. In addition, expenditure shifts toward current spending and away from capital spending for unaligned provinces in electoral years.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universidad del CEMA in its series CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. with number 389.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:389

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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  1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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