IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cem/doctra/217.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aplicación de la teoría de valores extremos al gerenciamiento del riesgo

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel T. Delfiner
  • Matías A. Gutiérrez Girault

Abstract

Los activos en los mercados emergentes se caracterizan por una distribución de sus retornos más leptocúrtica que la de sus pares en mercados desarrollados. En este contexto se han aplicado diversas técnicas basadas en la Teoría de Valores Extremos (EVT) a un gran número de activos locales, a efectos de calcular su Valor a Riesgo (VaR). Estos resultaron ser mucho más precisos a la hora de predecir pérdidas extremas respecto a valores de VaR obtenidos bajo la hipótesis normal. Las técnicas consisten en un método estático2 y un método dinámico para calcular el VaR. Este último combina una estimación por pseudo máxima verosimilitud de un modelo AR(1) – GARCH(1,1) para la volatilidad corriente y EVT para estimar la cola de la distribución de la innovación del modelo.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel T. Delfiner & Matías A. Gutiérrez Girault, 2002. "Aplicación de la teoría de valores extremos al gerenciamiento del riesgo," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 217, Universidad del CEMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/217.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jon Danielsson & Casper G. De Vries, 2000. "Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 60, pages 239-270.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jon Danielsson & Casper G. De Vries, 2000. "Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 60, pages 239-270.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jose Fernandes & Augusto Hasman & Juan Ignacio Pena, 2007. "Risk premium: insights over the threshold," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59.
    2. Gonzalo Cortazar & Alejandro Bernales & Diether Beuermann, 2005. "Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading," Finance 0512030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alfredo Calderon Vela & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Extreme Value Theory: An Application to the Peruvian Stock Market Returns," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2014-394, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    2. Esparcia, Carlos & Jareño, Francisco & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Revisiting the safe haven role of Gold across time and frequencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Herrera, R. & Clements, A.E., 2018. "Point process models for extreme returns: Harnessing implied volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 161-175.
    4. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 435-457, September.
    5. Hong, Yongmiao & Liu, Yanhui & Wang, Shouyang, 2009. "Granger causality in risk and detection of extreme risk spillover between financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 271-287, June.
    6. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
    7. de Jesús, Raúl & Ortiz, Edgar & Cabello, Alejandra, 2013. "Long run peso/dollar exchange rates and extreme value behavior: Value at Risk modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 139-152.
    8. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo.
    9. Rossignolo, Adrian F. & Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Shaban, Mohamed, 2012. "Value-at-Risk models and Basel capital charges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 303-319.
    10. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
    11. Anthony J. Seymour & Daniel A. Polakow, 2003. "A Coupling of Extreme-Value Theory and Volatility Updating with Value-at-Risk Estimation in Emerging Markets: A South African Test," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 7(1-2), pages 3-23, March-Jun.
    12. Riedel, Christoph & Wagner, Niklas, 2015. "Is risk higher during non-trading periods? The risk trade-off for intraday versus overnight market returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 53-64.
    13. Rossignolo, Adrián F. & Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Shaban, Mohamed, 2013. "Market crises and Basel capital requirements: Could Basel III have been different? Evidence from Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1323-1339.
    14. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, Enero-Jun.
    15. Horváth, Roman & Šopov, Boril, 2016. "GARCH models, tail indexes and error distributions: An empirical investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Sun, Pengfei & Zhou, Chen, 2014. "Diagnosing the distribution of GARCH innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 287-303.
    17. Benjamin Mögel & Benjamin R. Auer, 2018. "How accurate are modern Value-at-Risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 979-1030, May.
    18. Roland Füss & Zeno Adams & Dieter G Kaiser, 2010. "The predictive power of value-at-risk models in commodity futures markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 261-285, October.
    19. Wang, Chuan-Sheng & Zhao, Zhibiao, 2016. "Conditional Value-at-Risk: Semiparametric estimation and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 86-103.
    20. Iglesias, Emma M. & Linton, Oliver, 2009. "Estimation of tail thickness parameters from GJR-GARCH models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we094726, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valeria Dowding (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.