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Population aging and the rising costs of public pension in Brazil

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Author Info

  • Bernardo Lanza Queiroz

    (Cedeplar/UFMG)

  • Moema Gonçalves Bueno Figoli

    (Cedeplar/UFMG)

Abstract

This article examines the evolution of retirement in Brazil and its old-age support programs (public pension). The key objective is to show that given the current trend in population and size of the programs, their sustainability in the near future may be endangered. In this paper, we also provide a measure of public pension expenditure under different policy scenarios. This paper provides empirical evidence indicating that the absence of appropriate policies can aggravate adverse effects of population aging. We show that the public pension system works less efficiently than desired and that it is already in a weaker condition than systems in more developed nations. We contribute to the debate on how critical policy areas may reduce the potential economic impact of demographic changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td438.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td438

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Related research

Keywords: public pension system; population aging; demographic changes; forecasting.;

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References

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  1. David Lam & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2005. "Labour force withdrawal of the elderly in South Africa," SALDRU/CSSR Working Papers 118, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
  2. Michael Baker & Jonathan Gruber & Kevin Milligan, 2001. "The Retirement Incentive Effects of Canada's Income Security Programs," NBER Working Papers 8658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jeffrey Liebman, 2009. "Comment on "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 68-71 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Marcos Bonturi, 2002. "The Brazilian Pension System: Recent Reforms and Challenges Ahead," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 340, OECD Publishing.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers 30153, The World Bank.
  7. Richard Disney, 2003. "Public Pension Reform in Europe: Policies, Prospects and Evaluation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(10), pages 1425-1445, November.
  8. Bernardo Lanza Queiroz & Cássio Maldonado Turra & Elisenda Renteria Perez, 2006. "The Opportunities We Cannot Forgo: Economic Consequences Of Population Changes In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 32, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  9. Peracchi, Franco & Welch, Finis, 1994. "Trends in Labor Force Transitions of Older Men and Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 210-42, April.
  10. Bernardo Lanza Queiroz, 2007. "The determinants of male retirement in urban Brazil," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 17(1), pages 11-36, January-A.
  11. de Carvalho Filho, Irineu Evangelista, 2008. "Old-age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-146, April.
  12. Paola Profeta, 2002. "Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 9(6), pages 651-672, November.
  13. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
  14. Gary Burtless & Joseph F. Quinn, 2000. "Retirement Trends and Policies to Encourage Work Among Older Americans," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 436, Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Introduction to "Social Security and Retirement around the World"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 1-35 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Joseph F. Quinn, 1993. "Retirement And The Labor Force Behavior Of The Elderly," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 257, Boston College Department of Economics.
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