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Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up?

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  • Berck, Peter
  • Roberts, Mike
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    Abstract

    Hotelling's theory predicts that natural resource rents should increase over time. However, technical progress in resource extraction, environmental constraints,or great natural abundance could result in stagnant or declining product prices. Thus, there is no theoretical reason to believe that product prices will rise in the near future. The prediction of product prices by time-series methods is shown to depend critically upon whether the series are modeled as differenced or trend stationary. Dickey-Fuller and Lagrange Multiplier tests are used to show that the series are differenced stationary. Long- and short-sample series are tested. Trend-stationary modeling strongly predicts rising resource prices. The result from differenced-stationary modeling is that there is only a weak supposition that natural resource prices will rise.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number qt75g2c8g8.

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    Date of creation: 01 Mar 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt75g2c8g8

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    Keywords: arima models; natural resources; simulation methods;

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    1. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    2. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
    3. repec:fth:calaec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hartwick, John M, 1978. "Exploitation of Many Deposits of an Exhaustible Resource," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 201-17, January.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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