Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model
AbstractThis paper reports panel gravity estimates of aggregate bilateral trade for 130 countries over the period 1962-96 in which the coefficient of distance is allowed to change over time. In a standard specification in which transport costs are proxied by distance only, it is found paradoxically that the absolute value of the elasticity of bilateral trade to distance has been significantly increasing.The result is attributed to a relatively larger decline in costs independent of distance (such as handling) than in distance-related costs (e.g. oil price). An extended version of the model that controls for these two factors eliminates this positive trend without reversing it. However, when the sample is split into two groups ("rich-rich" and "poor-poor"), the paradox is maintained for the "poor-poor" group. While not conclusive, these results are consistent with the view that poor countries may have been marginalized by the current wave of globalization.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200215.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in World Bank Economic Review, 2005, pages 99-120
Other versions of this item:
- Jean-François Brun & Céline Carrère & Patrick Guillaumont & Jaime de Melo, 2005. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 19(1), pages 99-120.
- Brun, Jean-François & Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2002. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
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