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Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model

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Author Info
Jean-François BRUN () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
Céline CARRERE () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
Patrick GUILLAUMONT () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
Jaime MELO DE () (Université Genève)

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Abstract

This paper reports panel gravity estimates of aggregate bilateral trade for 130 countries over the period 1962-96 in which the coefficient of distance is allowed to change over time. In a standard specification in which transport costs are proxied by distance only, it is found paradoxically that the absolute value of the elasticity of bilateral trade to distance has been significantly increasing.The result is attributed to a relatively larger decline in costs independent of distance (such as handling) than in distance-related costs (e.g. oil price). An extended version of the model that controls for these two factors eliminates this positive trend without reversing it. However, when the sample is split into two groups ("rich-rich" and "poor-poor"), the paradox is maintained for the "poor-poor" group. While not conclusive, these results are consistent with the view that poor countries may have been marginalized by the current wave of globalization.

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Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200215.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:180

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hummels, David, 2001. "Time as a Trade Barrier," GTAP Working Papers 1152, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Breusch, Trevor S & Mizon, Grayham E & Schmidt, Peter, 1989. "Efficient Estimation Using Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 695-700, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro & Clark, Ximena, 2002. "Maritime transport costs and port efficiency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2781, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Céline CARRERE, 2002. "Revisiting Regional Trading Agreements with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model," Working Papers 200210, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Jean-François BRUN & Jaime MELO DE, 1998. "La distance abolie ? Critères et mesure de la mondialisation du commerce extérieur," Working Papers 199830, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Borgatti, Lisa, 2007. "Pacific Islands' Bilateral Trade: The Role of Remoteness and of Transport Costs," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  2. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2006. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3889, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2008. "Disaggregated Trade Flows and the “Missing Globalization Puzzle”," Working papers 08-209, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig, 2007. "Structural gravity equations with intensive and extensive margins," EconomiX Working Papers 2007-36, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jean-Marie Grether & Jaime de Melo, 2003. "Globalization and Dirty Industries: Do Pollution Havens Matter?," NBER Working Papers 9776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2006. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 864, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jean-Marie GRETHER & Nicole Mathys, 2008. "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 08.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  8. José Guimón, . "Geo-economic implications of the fifth EU enlargement," Studies on the Spanish Economy 167, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Millimet, Daniel & Henderson, Daniel, 2006. "Is Gravity Linear?," Departmental Working Papers 0517, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Carrere, Celine & Schiff, Maurice, 2004. "On the geography of trade : distance is alive and well," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3206, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2004. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Petr Mariel & Susan Orbe & Carlos Rodríguez, 2007. "A time varying coefficient model for panel data: Foreign Direct Investment in European OECD countries," BILTOKI 200703, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística). [Downloadable!]
  13. Gert-Jan M. Linders, 2005. "Distance Decay in International Trade Patterns - a Meta-analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa05p679, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  14. Claudia M. Buch & Jörn Kleinert & Farid Toubal, 2003. "The Distance Puzzle: On the Interpretation of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations," Kiel Working Papers 1159, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Guillaumont, Patrick, 2008. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers RP2008/99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  16. Rikhil Bhavnani & David T. Coe & Arvind Subramanian & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2002. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 02/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," ESE Discussion Papers 105, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  18. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381. [Downloadable!]
  19. Bhattacharyya Ranajoy & Banerjee Tathagata, 2006. "Does the Gravity Model Explain India's Direction of Trade? A Panel Data Approach," IIMA Working Papers 2006-09-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department. [Downloadable!]
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