Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Imputing Individual Effects in Dynamic Microsimulation Models.An application of the Rank Method

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ambra Poggi
  • Matteo G. Richiardi

Abstract

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show that the simple solutions of attributing to these individuals a null effect or a random draw from the estimated unconditional distributions lead to biased forecasts, which are often worse than those obtained neglecting unobserved heterogeneity altogether. We then present a first implementation of the Rank method, a new algorithm for attributing the individual effects to the simulation sample which greatly simplifies those already known in the literature. Out-of-sample validation of our model shows that correctly imputing unobserved heterogeneity significantly improves the quality of the forecasts.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/_pdf/wp124.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies in its series LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series with number 124.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:124

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Real Collegio, 30, 10024 Moncalieri (To)
Phone: +390116705000
Fax: +390116476847
Email:
Web page: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Dynamic microsimulation; Unobserved heterogeneity; Validation; Rank method; Assignment algorithms; Female labor force participation; Italy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
  2. Hahn, Jinyong, 2001. "The Information Bound Of A Dynamic Panel Logit Model With Fixed Effects," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 913-932, October.
  3. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
  4. Daniela Del Boca & Daniela Vuri, 2007. "The mismatch between employment and child care in Italy: the impact of rationing," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 805-832, October.
  5. Matteo G. Richiardi, 2012. "Forecasting with Unobserved Heterogeneity," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 123, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  6. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
  7. Hahn, Jinyong, 1999. "How informative is the initial condition in the dynamic panel model with fixed effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 309-326, December.
  8. Stefan Hoderlein & Enno Mammen & Kyusang Yu, 2011. "Non‐parametric models in binary choice fixed effects panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 351-367, October.
  9. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
  10. Carro, Jesus M., 2007. "Estimating dynamic panel data discrete choice models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 503-528, October.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  12. Daniele Pacifico, 2013. "On the role of unobserved preference heterogeneity in discrete choice models of labour supply," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 929-963, October.
  13. J.S. Cramer, 2005. "Omitted Variables and Misspecified Disturbances in the Logit Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-084/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. repec:ese:iserwp:2011-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Bratti, Massimiliano & Del Bono, Emilia & Vuri, Daniela, 2004. "New Mothers' Labour Force Participation in Italy: The Role of Job Characteristics," IZA Discussion Papers 1111, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  17. Arellano, M., 2001. "Discrete Choices with Panel Data," Papers 0101, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  18. Yatchew, Adonis & Griliches, Zvi, 1985. "Specification Error in Probit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 134-39, February.
  19. Francesco Devicienti & Ambra Poggi, 2007. "Poverty and social exclusion: two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 62, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  20. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-59, December.
  21. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  22. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2012. "Simulating Histories within Dynamic Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 52-76.
  23. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  24. Piero Casadio & Martina Lo Conte & Andrea Neri, 2008. "Balancing work and family in Italy: New mothersÂ’ employment decisions after childbirth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 684, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  25. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2010. "(Non)persistent effects of fertility on female labour supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 783, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  26. Honore, Bo E., 1993. "Orthogonality conditions for Tobit models with fixed effects and lagged dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 35-61, September.
  27. Pacifico, Daniele, 2009. "Modelling Unobserved Heterogeneity in Discrete Choice Models of Labour Supply," MPRA Paper 19030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Anxo, Dominique & Flood, Lennart & Mencarini, Letizia & Pailhé, Ariane & Solaz, Anne & Tanturri, Maria Letizia, 2007. "Time Allocation between Work and Family over the Life-Cycle: A Comparative Gender Analysis of Italy, France, Sweden and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 3193, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  29. Peter Haan, 2006. "Slowly, but Changing: How Does Genuine State Dependence Affect Female Labor Supply on the Extensive and Intensive Margin," JEPS Working Papers 06-002, JEPS.
  30. Letizia Mencarini & Maria Letizia Tanturri, 2006. "High Fertility or Childlessness: Micro-Level Determinants of Reproductive Behaviour in Italy," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 61(4), pages 389-415.
  31. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giovanni Bert).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.