IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/wp19e16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Firms' Inflation Expectations under Rational Inattention and Sticky Information: An Analysis with a Small-Scale Macroeconomic Model

Author

Listed:
  • Tomiyuki Kitamura

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Masaki Tanaka

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In this paper, we construct a small-scale macroeconomic model that incorporates three hypotheses on the formation of inflation expectations: the full-information rational expectations (FIRE), rational inattention, and sticky information hypotheses. Using data for Japan, including survey data on firms' inflation expectations, we estimate the model to examine the empirical validity of each hypothesis, and analyze how rational inattention and sticky information affect the dynamics of firms' inflation expectations. Our main findings are twofold. First, each one of the three hypotheses has a role to play in explaining the mechanism of the formation of firms' inflation expectations in Japan. In this sense, the manner in which firms form their inflation expectations in Japan is complex. Second, although firms' inflation expectations have been pushed up by the Bank of Japan's introduction of its "price stability target" and the expansion in the output gap amid the Bank's Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE), the presence of rational inattention and information stickiness has slowed the pace of the rise in firms' inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomiyuki Kitamura & Masaki Tanaka, 2019. "Firms' Inflation Expectations under Rational Inattention and Sticky Information: An Analysis with a Small-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp19e16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2019/data/wp19e16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    2. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
    3. Koichiro Kamada, 2013. "Downward Rigidity in Households' Price Expectations: An Analysis Based on the Bank of Japan's 'Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior'," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    4. Koji Takahashi, 2016. "TIPS: The Trend Inflation Projection System and Estimation Results," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    6. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
    8. Xavier Gabaix, 2014. "A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1661-1710.
    9. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Charles L. Schultze, 1981. "Some Macro Foundations for Micro Theory," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 521-592.
    11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 920-940, August.
    12. Edward S. Knotek Ii, 2010. "A Tale of Two Rigidities: Sticky Prices in a Sticky-Information Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1543-1564, December.
    13. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    14. Takuji Kawamoto & Tatsuya Ozaki & Naoya Kato & Kohei Maehashi, 2017. "Methodology for Estimating Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate: An Update," Bank of Japan Research Papers 17-05-31, Bank of Japan.
    15. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
    16. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    17. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
    18. Kousuke Nishino & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jun Kitahara & Takashi Nagahata, 2016. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Comprehensive Assessment" (1): Developments in Inflation Expectations over the Three Years since the Introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary," Bank of Japan Review Series 16-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    19. Koichiro Kamada & Jouchi Nakajima & Shusaku Nishiguchi, 2015. "Are Household Inflation Expectations Anchored in Japan?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    20. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    21. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    23. Bill Dupor & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2010. "Integrating Sticky Prices and Sticky Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 657-669, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shuichiro Ikeda & Haruhiko Inatsugu & Yui Kishaba & Takuji Kondo & Kenichi Sakura & Kosuke Takatomi & Takashi Nakazawa & Kotone Yamada, "undated". "Inflation in Japan: Changes during the Pandemic and Issues for the Future," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    2. Haruhiko Inatsugu & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Taichi Matsuda, 2019. "The Formation of Firms' Inflation Expectations: A Survey Data Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    3. Jouchi Nakajima & Hiroaki Yamagata & Tatsushi Okuda & Shinnosuke Katsuki & Takeshi Shinohara, 2021. "Extracting Firms' Short-Term Inflation Expectations from the Economy Watchers Survey Using Text Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    4. Vereda, Luciano & Savignon, João & Gouveia da Silva, Tarciso, 2021. "A new method to assess the degree of information rigidity using fixed-event forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1576-1589.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Haruhiko Inatsugu & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Taichi Matsuda, 2019. "The Formation of Firms' Inflation Expectations: A Survey Data Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    3. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    4. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Atahan Afsar; José Elías Gallegos; Richard Jaimes; Edgar Silgado Gómez & José Elías Gallegos & Richard Jaimes & Edgar Silgado Gómez, 2020. "Reconciling Empirics and Theory: The Behavioral Hybrid New Keynesian Model," Vniversitas Económica 18560, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    7. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    8. Kim, Insu & Kim, Young Se, 2019. "Inattentive agents and inflation forecast error dynamics: A Bayesian DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "Imperfect Information, Heterogeneous Demand Shocks, and Inflation Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2108, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 733-748, December.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3v5mev848s8148gjqcbf4mva5q is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7rrg4irjh79549mkjh27en0pos is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 181-196.
    14. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    15. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    16. George‐Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2018. "Quantifying Confidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1689-1726, September.
    17. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    18. Yosuke Uno & Saori Naganuma & Naoko Hara, 2018. "New Facts about Firms' Inflation Expectations: Simple Tests for a Sticky Information Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    19. Carrillo, Julio A., 2012. "How well does sticky information explain the dynamics of inflation, output, and real wages?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 830-850.
    20. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2022. "Long‐term inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 158-174, January.
    22. CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2020. "Information Acquisition and Price Setting under Uncertainty: New Survey Evidence," Discussion papers 20078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey inflation expectations; Rational inattention; Sticky information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp19e16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.