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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Credit Default Swap Spreads

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Author Info
Christopher F Baum () (Boston College, DIW Berlin)
Chi Wan () (Carleton University)

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the spreads of credit default swaps (CDS). While existing literature acknowledges the importance of the levels of macroeconomic factors in determining CDS spreads, we show that the second moments of these factors--macroeconomic uncertainty--predict CDS spreads even in the presence of traditional macroeconomic factors such as the risk-free rate and the Treasury term spread.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 724.

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Date of creation: 03 Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:724

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Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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Related research
Keywords: Macroeconomic uncertainty; CDS spreads; default risk; credit risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2006. "Managerial incentives and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 431-468, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Houweling, Patrick & Mentink, Albert & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Comparing possible proxies of corporate bond liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1331-1358, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2002. "Empirical evidence on the relation between stock option compensation and risk taking," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 145-171, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John D. Knopf & Jouahn Nam & John H. Thornton Jr., 2002. "The Volatility and Price Sensitivities of Managerial Stock Option Portfolios and Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 801-813, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Agrawal, Deepak & Mann, Christopher, 2004. "Factors affecting the valuation of corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2747-2767, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Dragon Tang & Hong Yan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Conditions, Firm Characteristics, and Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 177-210, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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