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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Credit Default Swap Spreads

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  • Christopher F Baum

    ()
    (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

  • Chi Wan

    ()
    (Carleton University)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the spreads of individual firms' credit default swaps (CDS). While existing literature ac- knowledges the importance of the levels of macroeconomic factors in determining CDS spreads, we find that the second moments of these factors--macroeconomic uncertainty--have significant explanatory power over and above that of traditional macroeconomic factors such as the risk-free rate and the Treasury term spread.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 724.

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Date of creation: 03 Nov 2009
Date of revision: 03 Mar 2010
Publication status: published, Applied Financial Economics, 20, 1163-1171, 2010.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:724

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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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Keywords: Macroeconomic uncertainty; CDS spreads; default risk; credit risk;

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  1. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
  2. Christopher F Baum & Sylvia Hristakeva, 2001. "DENTON: Stata module to interpolate a flow or stock series from low-frequency totals via proportional Denton method," Statistical Software Components S422501, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 17 Jul 2014.
  3. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment grade bonds and credit default swaps," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0401, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Boyan Liu, 2010. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firms' changes in financial leverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 22-30.
  5. Oleksandra Talavera & Christopher Baum & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Firm Leverage," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 72, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  6. Jin, Li, 2002. "CEO compensation, diversification, and incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 29-63, October.
  7. Houweling, P. & Mentink, A.A. & Vorst, A.C.F., 2003. "Comparing possible proxies of corporate bond liquidity," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-49, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  8. John D. Knopf & Jouahn Nam & John H. Thornton Jr., 2002. "The Volatility and Price Sensitivities of Managerial Stock Option Portfolios and Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 801-813, 04.
  9. Dragon Tang & Hong Yan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Conditions, Firm Characteristics, and Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 177-210, June.
  10. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
  11. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April.
  12. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
  13. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2006. "Managerial incentives and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 431-468, February.
  14. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
  16. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market," NBER Working Papers 10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, 02.
  18. Haibin Zhu & Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," BIS Working Papers 181, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
  20. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2002. "Empirical evidence on the relation between stock option compensation and risk taking," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 145-171, June.
  22. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Agrawal, Deepak & Mann, Christopher, 2004. "Factors affecting the valuation of corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2747-2767, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kargi, Bilal, 2014. "Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads: The Analysis of Time Series for The Integration with The Interest Rates and The Growth in Turkish Economy," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 59-66.
  2. Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks," Working Paper Series 1479, European Central Bank.
  3. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Pacelli, Graziella, 2014. "Valuing risky debt: A new model combining structural information with the reduced-form approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 261-271.

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