IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/region/308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Convergencia regional en Colombia en el Siglo XXI

Author

Listed:
  • Karina Acosta
  • Jaime Bonet-Morón

Abstract

Los estudios que pretenden responder si las zonas más prósperas de Colombia crecen a menor ritmo que aquellas con mayor rezago relativo han arrojado resultados dispares. Este documento actualiza las estimaciones de la convergencia beta incondicional del PIB per cápita para los primeros años del siglo XXI, donde se han observado importantes cambios estructurales. Adicionalmente, el estudio descompone la convergencia beta por cambios sectoriales y mide su estabilidad ante variaciones del año inicial de comparación. Este análisis se complementó con el estudio de la convergencia de otros indicadores sociales y económicos. Los resultados sugieren una beta creciente, aunque no significativa, indicando una transición de una leve convergencia a un periodo de divergencia. Además, los principales contribuyentes a la convergencia durante mayor parte del período son los sectores de minas y canteras, y el sector público. En contraste, existe evidencia de convergencia de los ingresos fiscales per cápita y una reducción más rápida de la pobreza multidimensional en las zonas con menor pobreza inicial en el último período intercensal. **** ABSTRACT: The studies aiming to answer if wealthier areas in Colombia are growing at a slower pace than poorer areas have yielded mixed results. This chapter updates such estimates of unconditional beta convergence of the GDP per capita for the first years of the 21st century, when substantial changes occurred. Furthermore, we decompose the beta by sectorial changes throughout the period while estimating it with a moving starting year. This assessment was supplemented by a convergence analysis of additional social and economic indicators. Our results suggest an increasing, yet nonsignificant, beta, indicating that Colombia is moving from a subtle convergence to a more frequent period of divergence. Moreover, we find that the primer convergence forces from most of the period are mines and quarrying along with the public sector. In contrast, there is strong evidence of tax revenues per capita convergence and an apparent faster reduction of multidimensional poverty in wealthier areas in the last intercensal period.

Suggested Citation

  • Karina Acosta & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2022. "Convergencia regional en Colombia en el Siglo XXI," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:308
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.308
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/dtseru.308?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patel, Dev & Sandefur, Justin & Subramanian, Arvind, 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    3. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew,Matsuoka,Hideaki, 2021. "Sectoral Decomposition of Convergence in Labor Productivity : A Re-examination from a New Dataset," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9767, The World Bank.
    4. Julie Gallo & Cem Ertur & Catherine Baumont, 2003. "A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Convergence Across European Regions, 1980–1995," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Bernard Fingleton (ed.), European Regional Growth, chapter 3, pages 99-129, Springer.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. James Lesage & Manfred Fischer, 2008. "Spatial Growth Regressions: Model Specification, Estimation and Interpretation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 275-304.
    7. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    8. Vicente Royuela & Gustavo Adolfo Garc�a, 2015. "Economic and Social Convergence in Colombia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 219-239, February.
    9. Bonet-Morón, Jaime Alfredo & Meisel-Roca, Adolfo, 2001. "La convergencia regional en Colombia : una visión de largo plazo, 1926-1995," Chapters, in: Meisel-Roca, Adolfo (ed.), Regiones, ciudades y crecimiento económico en Colombia, chapter 1, pages 11-56, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Paolo Postiglione & M. Andreano & Roberto Benedetti, 2013. "Using Constrained Optimization for the Identification of Convergence Clubs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 151-174, August.
    11. Cartone, Alfredo & Postiglione, Paolo & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2021. "Does economic convergence hold? A spatial quantile analysis on European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 408-417.
    12. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2021. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 337-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jaime Bonet & Adolfo Meisel Roca, 2006. "El legado colonial como determinante del ingreso per cápita departamental en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 2520, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    14. Jorge Espitia & César Ferrari & Jorge Iván González & Isidro Hernández & Luis Carlos Reyes & Alejandra Romero & Carlo Tassara & David Varela & Jairo Villabona & Gustavo Zafra, 2019. "El gasto público en Colombia. Reflexiones y propuestas," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 21(40), pages 291-326, January-J.
    15. Mauricio Cárdenas & Adriana Pontón & Juan Pablo Trujillo, 1993. "Convergencia y migraciones interdepartamentales en Colombia: 1950 - 1983," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 23(1), pages 111-137, April.
    16. Barón-Rivera, Juan David & Meisel-Roca, Adolfo, 2004. "La descentralización y las disparidades económicas regionales en Colombia en la década de 1990," Chapters, in: Meisel-Roca, Adolfo (ed.), Macroeconomía y regiones en Colombia, chapter 4, pages 152-217, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 1990-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    18. Jaime Bonet Morón & Adolfo Meisel Roca, 2007. "Polarización del ingreso per cápita departamental en Colombia, 1975-2000," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 12-43, June.
    19. María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo & María Mercedes Collazos-Gaitán & Jorge García-García & Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Armando Montenegro-Trujillo & Paula Lancheros-Ramírez & , 2021. "La inversión en infraestructura de transporte y la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 99, pages 1-134, May.
    20. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    21. Carlos Caballero & Germán Machado, 2020. "De la crisis de 'fin de siglo' a la del 'coronavirus'. La economía colombiana en el siglo XXI," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 50(1-2), pages 15-74, December.
    22. José Antonio Ocampo, 2020. "Los ciclos internacionales y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Libros Fedesarrollo 18377, Fedesarrollo.
    23. Sebastián Acevedo, 2003. "Convergencia y crecimiento en Colombia: 1980 - 2000," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 5430, Universidad EAFIT.
    24. Sergio J. Rey & Julie Gallo, 2009. "Spatial Analysis of Economic Convergence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 27, pages 1251-1290, Palgrave Macmillan.
    25. Wong, Wei-Kang, 2006. "OECD convergence: A sectoral decomposition exercise," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 210-214, November.
    26. Boris Branisa & Adriana Cardozo, 2009. "Regional Growth Convergence in Colombia Using Social Indicators," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 195, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    27. Perez-Reyna, David, 2017. "Historia del Banco de la República : crisis de 1999," Chapters, in: Uribe, José Darío (ed.), Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015, chapter 10, pages 437-463, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    28. Birchenall Jiménez Javier Arturo, 1997. "Convergencia regional: una revisión del caso colombiano," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, September.
    29. Isabelle Joumard & Mauro Pisu & Debbie Bloch, 2012. "Tackling income inequality: The role of taxes and transfers," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 37-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diego Ismael León Nieto & Héctor Fabio Ríos Hernández, 2013. "Convergencia regional en el índice de desarrollo humano en Colombia," Revista Equidad y Desarrollo, Universidad de la Salle, October.
    2. Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte & Wendy Galvis-Larios & Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro, 2017. "Una revisión de los estudios de convergencia regional en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 15914, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    3. Vicente Royuela & Gustavo Adolfo Garc�a, 2015. "Economic and Social Convergence in Colombia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 219-239, February.
    4. Paolo Postiglione & Alfredo Cartone & Domenica Panzera, 2020. "Economic Convergence in EU NUTS 3 Regions: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Rivadeneira Alex, 2023. "Unconditional Convergence in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector (1988-2018)," Working Papers 2023-06, Banco de México.
    6. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira‐Font, 2022. "Geography and regional economic growth: The high cost of deviating from nature," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 360-388, March.
    7. Alfredo Cartone & Paolo Postiglione, 2016. "Modelli spaziali di regressione quantilica per l?analisi della convergenza economica regionale," RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(3), pages 28-48.
    8. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "In Defence of the Endogenous Growth Theory: "Conditional" and "Unconditional" Convergence in Two-Country AK Models," MPRA Paper 115092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Manfred M. Fischer & James P. LeSage, 2015. "A Bayesian space-time approach to identifying and interpreting regional convergence clubs in Europe," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(4), pages 677-702, November.
    11. Cartone, Alfredo & Postiglione, Paolo & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2021. "Does economic convergence hold? A spatial quantile analysis on European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 408-417.
    12. Domenica Panzera & Paolo Postiglione, 2014. "Economic growth in Italian NUTS 3 provinces," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 273-293, August.
    13. Arano, Kathleen G. & Srinivasan, Arun K., 2021. "Local Economies and Economic Growth, Does Location Matter? A Spatial Analysis in the Great Lakes Region," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 51(1), June.
    14. Sedat Alataş & Erkam Sarı, 2021. "An Empirical Investigation on Regional Disparities in Public Expenditures: Province Level Evidence from Turkey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 217-240, November.
    15. Ricardo Carvalho De Andrade Lima & Raul Da Mota Silveira Neto, 2016. "Physical and Human Capital and Brazilian Regional Growth: A Spatial Econometric Approach for the Period 1970–2010," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1688-1701, October.
    16. Saúl N. Keifman & Diego Herrero, 2020. "Convergencia económica e industrial entre países. ¿Qué dice la evidencia?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4361, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    17. Mendez-Guerra, Carlos, 2017. "Labor productivity, capital accumulation, and aggregate efficiency across countries: Some stylized facts," MPRA Paper 82461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Arfat Ahmad Sofi & Subash Sasidharan & Mohammad Younus Bhat, 2023. "Economic growth and club convergence: Is there a neighbour's effect?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2475-2494, July.
    19. Coscia, Michelle & Cheston, Timothy & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2017. "Institutions vs. Social Interactions in Driving Economic Convergence: Evidence from Colombia," Working Paper Series rwp17-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    20. Leone Leonida, 2023. "What Have We Not Learned from the Convergence Debate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convergencia; beta; PIB per cápita; departamentos; Colombia; convergence; beta; GDP per capita; departments; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:region:308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.