Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach
AbstractThis study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher’s (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocs. The first bloc consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second bloc consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by non-significant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, while there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy-Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann .
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 729.
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Copula; Regular Vine; Exchange Rates; Tail Dependence Coefficients. Classification JEL:C32; C51; E42.;
Other versions of this item:
- Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2012. "Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009902, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAM-2012-09-09 (Central & South America)
- NEP-MON-2012-09-09 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
004523, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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