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Ahorros y Términos de Intercambio de la Economía Dependiente

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada

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Abstract

La parábola de la economía dependiente tiene una larga tradición. Sus orígenes se remontan a los ensayos de interpretación del desempeño de las economías latinoamericanas, escandinavas y australiana desde fines de los años 40 de este siglo. Aunque existen diferentes versiones de la parábola, en todas aquellas ha jugado un papel significativo el efecto de la variación de los términos de intercambio. En general, se ha considerado que un deterioro "permanente" o de largo plazo de los términos de intercambio es algo malo para la economía "dependiente " (y viceversa). Es difícil estar en desacuerdo con varias de las características o moralejas de esa parábola, aunque ya escasean los académicos que defiendan el corolario de la conveniencia de un desarrollo basado en sustitución de importaciones que dedujo la vertiente latinoamericana. No obstante, hay algo que puede afirmarse acerca de un deterioro permanente de los términos de intercambio y que usualmente no se dice (o sólo se menciona con insuficiente claridad): Tal deterioro tiende a elevar las tasas de ahorro. En las secciones siguientes se mostrará esto utilizando dos versiones de un modelo de la economía dependiente. Al final se presentará alguna evidencia empírica favorable a esta hipótesis.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 047.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:047

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  1. Alejandro Gaviria, 1993. "El ahorro privado y los términos de intercambio: el caso colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
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