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Predictive Inference on Finite Populations Segmented in Planned and Unplanned Domains

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  • Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos
  • Olivares-Guzmán Sergio I.
  • Roldán-Rodríguez Adriana

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a new model-based method to inference on totals and averages of nite populations segmented in planned domains or strata. Within each stratum, we decompose the total as the sum of its sampled and unsampled parts, making inference on the unsampled part using Bayesian nonparametric methods. Additionally, we extend this method to make inference on totals of unplanned domains simultaneously modelling, within each stratum, the underlying uncertainty about the composition of the population and the totals across unplanned domains. Making inference on population averages is straightforward in both frameworks. To illustrate these methods, we develop a simulation exercise and evaluate the uncertainty surrounding the gender wage gap in Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos & Olivares-Guzmán Sergio I. & Roldán-Rodríguez Adriana, 2014. "Predictive Inference on Finite Populations Segmented in Planned and Unplanned Domains," Working Papers 2014-04, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-04
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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