Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Under/over-valuation of the stock market and cyclically adjusted earnings


Author Info

  • Marco Taboga

    (Bank of Italy)


The ratio between current earnings per share and share price (the EP ratio) is widely considered to be an effective gauge of under/over-valuation of a corporation’s stock. Arguably, a more reliable indicator (the cyclically-adjusted EP ratio) can be obtained by replacing current earnings with a measure of ‘permanent earnings’, i.e. the profits that the corporation is able to earn, on average, over the medium to long run. I propose a state-space model to filter business-cycle oscillations out of current earnings and compute the cyclically-adjusted EP ratio. I estimate the model with euro-area aggregate stock market data. I find periods, notably around the 2008 financial crisis, when the adjusted and the unadjusted EP ratios provide economically and statistically different indications. I propose a method to make the adjusted EP ratio easier to interpret by translating its values into estimates of the probability that the stock market is under/over-valued. These estimates clearly indicate periods of mis-valuation in my sample. Furthermore, some simulations suggest that the model would have been able to provide early warning signs of mis-valuation in real time.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 780.

as in new window
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_780_10

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page:
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: earnings/price ratio; cyclically adjusted earnings; undervaluation/overvaluation of stocks;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-51, May-June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Guido de Blasio & Davide Fantino & Guido Pellegrini, 2011. "Evaluating the impact of innovation incentives: evidence from an unexpected shortage of funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 792, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.


This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_780_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.