Detecting long memory co-movements in macroeconomic time series
AbstractCointegration analysis tests for the existence of a significant long-run equilibrium among some economic variables. Standard econometric procedures to test for cointegration have proven unreliable when the long-run relation among the variables is characterized by non-linearities and persistent fluctuations around the equilibrium. As a consequence, many intuitive economic relations are empirically rejected. In this paper we propose a simple approach to account for non-linearities in the cointegrating equilibrium and possible long memory fluctuations from such equilibrium. We show that our correction allows us to test robustly for the presence of cointegration both under the null and alternative hypotheses. We apply our procedure to the Johansen-Juselius PPP-UIP database, and unlike the standard case, we do not fail to reject the null of no cointegration.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 642.
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Cointegration analysis; long memory;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-10-20 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-10-20 (Econometric Time Series)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003.
"Testing of Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 517-529, 09.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series," Faculty Working Papers 09/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
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