Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics

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Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics

Author Info

Gianluca, MORETTI
Giulio, NICOLETTI

Abstract

Recent literature clams that key variables such as aggregate productivity and inflation display long memory dynamics. We study the impllications of this high degree of persistence on the estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DGSE) models. We show that long memory data produce substantial bias in the deep parameter estimates when a standard Kalman Filter-MLE procedure is used. We propose a modification of the Kalman Filter procedure, we mainly augment the state space, which deals with this problem. By the means of the augmented state space we can consistently estimate the model parameters as well as produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts compared to the standard Kalman filter.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2008037.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 04 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2008037

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-12-14 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2008-12-14 (Central Banking)
NEP-DGE-2008-12-14 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
NEP-ECM-2008-12-14 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2008-12-14 (Econometric Time Series)

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