A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy
AbstractThe relationship between the demographic structure and the saving rate of a society is the reflection of the aggregation of the behaviour of heterogeneous households, differing from one another in the type of living arrangements and in the characteristics of their members. In order to contribute to the understanding of this relationship, we construct a dynamic micro model capable of simulating the demographic development of a population, including the creation, destruction, dimension and various other important characteristics of households and their members. The demographic model is then combined with a specification of the processes generating income, social security wealth, retirement and consumption behaviour of households, and applied to a data set derived from survey data on the Italian household sector. Simulations of the model are used to study the evolution of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation over the period 1994-2100. If fertility and mortality assumptions of recent official projections are adopted and marriage and divorce rates maintained at current levels, the dramatic ageing of the population and the marked decline in the share of population living in traditional households would lead, other things being equal, to a substantial decline in the aggregate saving rate. However, the reduction in the number of children per household and, above all, the decline in the ratio of social security wealth of households to disposable income as the effects of the recently introduced reforms begin to be felt act as offsetting factors. As a result, the aggregate saving rate increases over the initial 30 years of the simulation and moderately decreases thereafter, stabilizing slightly above the original level. Implications of changes in a number of key assumptions regarding the demographic evolution, productivity growth and individual behavioural responses are also analyzed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 533.
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
demographic developments; family structure; consumption; saving; social security; micro simulation model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-07-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-EEC-2005-07-03 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2005-07-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MIC-2005-07-03 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-07-03 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kennedy, Peter, 1983. "Logarithmic Dependent Variables and Prediction Bias," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 45(4), pages 389-92, November.
- Albert Ando & Luigi Guiso & Daniele Terlizzese, 1993. "Dissaving by the Elderly, Transfer Motives and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 4569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deaton, A., 1989.
"Saving And Liquidity Constraints,"
153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Stock, J.H. & Wise, D.A., 1988.
"Pensions, The Option Value Of Work, And Retirement,"
e-88-28, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-80, September.
- James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 2686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
- Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 1997. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Introduction and Summary of Papers by..," NBER Working Papers 6134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
- Stephen P. Zeldes, .
"Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
16-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-46, April.
- Stephen Zeldes, . "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 24-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Lawrence Summers & Chris Carroll, 1987. "Why Is U.S. National Saving So Low?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 607-642.
- Rossi, Nicola & Visco, Ignazio, 1995. "National saving and social security in Italy," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 329-356, December.
- Ando,Albert & Guiso,Luigi & Visco,Ignazio (ed.), 1994. "Saving and the Accumulation of Wealth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452083, November.
- Jerry A. Hausman & David A. Wise, 1985. "Social Security, Health Status, and Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, pages 159-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guiso, L. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992.
"Why is Italy Saving Rate so High?,"
167, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Agar Brugiavini, 1999.
"Social Security and Retirement in Italy,"
in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 181-237
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1982.
"The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
0882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1985. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-sectional Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 183-206, February.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1982. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Analysis," Discussion Papers 516, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Jappelli, Tullio, 1995. "Does social security reduce the accumulation of private wealth? Evidence from Italian survey data," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-31, March.
- Paolo Guasoni, 2004. "Estimating state price densities by Hermite polynomials: theory and application to the Italian derivatives market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 507, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Barca, F. & Cannari, L. & Guiso, L., 1992. "Bequests and Saving for Retirement. What Impels the Accumulation of Wealth," Papers 165, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Stock, J.H. & Wise, D.A., 1988. "Pensions, The Option Value Of Work, And Retirement," Working Papers e-88-28, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Albert Ando & Andrea Moro, 1995. "Demographic Dynamics, Labor Force Participation and Household Asset Accumulation: Case of Japan," NBER Working Papers 5261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July.
- Ando, A. & Guiso, L. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Young Household's Saving and the Life Cycle of Opportunities. Evidence from Japan and Italy," Papers 164, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Claudia Biancotti & Giovanni D'Alessio, 2007. "The use of micro-level data from the Bank of Italy's survey of household income and wealth: a focus on household finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 342-346 Bank for International Settlements.
- Polin, Veronica & Sartor, Nicola, 2009. "Family Intertemporal Fiscal Incidence: A new Methodology for Assessing Public Policies," MPRA Paper 25570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.