Demographic Dynamics, Labor Force Participation and Household Asset Accumulation: Case of Japan
AbstractA dynamic model of the demographic structure of Japan is summarized. It is capable of tracing the dynamic development of the Japanese population, including the distribution of families by age, sex, and marital status of the head, as well as by the number and age of children and other dependents. This model is combined with a specification of the processes generating family income and consumption, and then used to generate the pattern of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation for the period 1985-2090 under alternative fertility assumptions. The results suggest that the saving-income ratio for Japan will increase slightly in the immediate future as the number of children per family declines sharply, and then fall moderately as the proportion of older persons in the population increases. Quantitative results depend critically on the labor force participation rate of older persons and on the probability of older persons merging into younger households. However, unless some major changes in Japanese saving behavior take place, our analysis suggests that Japan will have an unusually high net worth-income ratio as its population stabilizes or begins to decline.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5261.
Date of creation: Sep 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Ando, Albert & Moro, Andrea & Cordoba, Juan Pablo & Garland, Gonzalo, 1995. "Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 179-205, September.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ando, Albert & Moro, Andrea & Cordoba, Juan Pablo & Garland, Gonzalo, 1995. "Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 179-205, September.
- Albert Ando & Luigi Guiso & Daniele Terlizzese, 1993. "Dissaving by the Elderly, Transfer Motives and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 4569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1995. "Understanding the postwar decline in United States saving: a cohort analysis," Working Paper 9518, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
- Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
- Albert Ando & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari, 2004. "A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 533, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
- Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005.
"Japanese Saving Rate,"
2005 Meeting Papers
747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.