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Demographic Dynamics, Labor Force Participation and Household Asset Accumulation: Case of Japan

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  • Albert Ando
  • Andrea Moro

Abstract

A dynamic model of the demographic structure of Japan is summarized. It is capable of tracing the dynamic development of the Japanese population, including the distribution of families by age, sex, and marital status of the head, as well as by the number and age of children and other dependents. This model is combined with a specification of the processes generating family income and consumption, and then used to generate the pattern of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation for the period 1985-2090 under alternative fertility assumptions. The results suggest that the saving-income ratio for Japan will increase slightly in the immediate future as the number of children per family declines sharply, and then fall moderately as the proportion of older persons in the population increases. Quantitative results depend critically on the labor force participation rate of older persons and on the probability of older persons merging into younger households. However, unless some major changes in Japanese saving behavior take place, our analysis suggests that Japan will have an unusually high net worth-income ratio as its population stabilizes or begins to decline.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5261.

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Date of creation: Sep 1995
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Publication status: published as Ando, Albert & Moro, Andrea & Cordoba, Juan Pablo & Garland, Gonzalo, 1995. "Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 179-205, September.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5261

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  1. Albert Ando & Luigi Guiso & Daniele Terlizzese, 1993. "Dissaving by the Elderly, Transfer Motives and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 4569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ando, Albert & Moro, Andrea & Cordoba, Juan Pablo & Garland, Gonzalo, 1995. "Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 179-205, September.
  3. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  4. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1995. "Understanding the postwar decline in United States saving: a cohort analysis," Working Paper 9518, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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Cited by:
  1. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
  2. Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Japanese Saving Rate," Macroeconomics 0502017, EconWPA.
  3. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  4. Albert Ando & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari, 2004. "A micro simulation model of demographic development and households' economic behavior in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 533, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.

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