Estimating state price densities by Hermite polynomials: theory and application to the Italian derivatives market
AbstractWe study the problem of extracting the state price densities from the market prices of listed options. Adapting a model of Madan and Milne to a multiple expiration setting, we present an estimation method for the risk-neutral probability at a moving horizon of fixed length. With the exception of volatility, all model parameters can be estimated by linear regression and their number can be chosen arbitrarily, depending on the size of the dataset. We discuss empirical issues related to the application of this model to real data and show results on listed options on the Italian MIB30 equity index.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 507.
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
option pricing; state-price densities; orthogonal polynomials; risk-neutral valuation; calibration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-01-24 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-01-24 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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