IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wpmisp/mip_041_23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Di Virgilio

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Ivan Faiella

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Mistretta

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Simone Narizzano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We apply a novel method to estimate the impact of a change in energy expenditure on Italian firms’ credit risk, measured as the 12-month default probability (PD). We examine a shock to energy expenditure originating from different carbon tax levels and then 1) shock energy prices; 2) re‑compute the firm-level energy mix; 3) assess the impact on the firm PD via the re‑calculation of its financial statement. The flexibility of this approach, which includes scope 2 emissions, enables us to assess the transmission channels of energy shocks and firm exposure in detail. Our results show that the introduction of carbon taxation would have a limited impact on credit risk: a carbon tax of EUR 40, EUR 90 and EUR 140 per tonne of CO2 would raise the average PD by 0.6, 2.3 and 4.1 basis points, respectively. The effect is slightly larger for the Agriculture and Services sectors, while there is no clear pattern relating to firm size.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Di Virgilio & Ivan Faiella & Alessandro Mistretta & Simone Narizzano, 2023. "Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 41, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wpmisp:mip_041_23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/mercati-infrastrutture-e-sistemi-di-pagamento/approfondimenti/2023-041/N.41-MISP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faiella, Ivan & Lavecchia, Luciano & Michelangeli, Valentina & Mistretta, Alessandro, 2022. "A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 396-417.
    2. Ivan Faiella & Alessandro Mistretta, 2015. "Spesa energetica e competitività delle imprese italiane," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(3), pages 85-121.
    3. Irene Monasterolo, 2020. "Climate Change and the Financial System," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 299-320, October.
    4. Aiello, Maria Alessia & Angelico, Cristina, 2023. "Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 187-201.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faiella, Ivan & Lavecchia, Luciano & Michelangeli, Valentina & Mistretta, Alessandro, 2022. "A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 396-417.
    2. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Vikniswari Vija Kumaran & Siti Nurul Munawwarah & Mohd Khairi Ismail, 2021. "Sustainability in ASEAN: The Roles of Financial Development towards Climate Change," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9.
    4. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    5. Irene Monasterolo & Monica Billio & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "The importance of compound risk in the nexus of COVID-19, climate change and finance," Working Papers 2020:15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Antoine GODIN & Guilherme MAGACHO & Achilleas MANTES & Devrim YILMAZ & Etienne ESPAGNE, 2021. "Developing Countries’ Macroeconomic Exposure to the Low-carbon Transition," Working Paper 987d9eb7-8fce-4eb0-8cb7-d, Agence française de développement.
    7. D'Orazio, Paola & Hertel, Tobias & Kasbrink, Fynn, 2022. "No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks," Ruhr Economic Papers 946, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Climate change and financial systemic risk: Evidence from US banks and insurers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    10. Toma, Pierluigi & Stefanelli, Valeria, 2022. "What are the banks doing in managing climate risk? Empirical evidence from a position map," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Gutiérrez-López, Cristina & Castro, Paula & Tascón, María T., 2022. "How can firms' transition to a low-carbon economy affect the distance to default?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Aiello, Maria Alessia & Angelico, Cristina, 2023. "Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 187-201.
    13. Zhang, Dongna & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2023. "Impacts of weather conditions on the US commodity markets systemic interdependence across multi-timescales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2023. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118096, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Magacho, Guilherme & Espagne, Etienne & Godin, Antoine & Mantes, Achilleas & Yilmaz, Devrim, 2023. "Macroeconomic exposure of developing economies to low-carbon transition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. Yeguan Yu, 2023. "The Impact of Financial System on Carbon Intensity: From the Perspective of Digitalization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Emambakhsh, Tina & Fuchs, Maximilian & Kördel, Simon & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Lelli, Chiara & Pizzeghello, Riccardo & Salleo, Carmelo & Spaggiari, Martina, 2023. "The Road to Paris: stress testing the transition towards a net-zero economy," Occasional Paper Series 328, European Central Bank.
    18. Karl Naumann-Woleske, 2023. "Agent-based Integrated Assessment Models: Alternative Foundations to the Environment-Energy-Economics Nexus," Papers 2301.08135, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    19. Khaled El Sakty & Mohamed Abdelraouf & Samira Allam, 2023. "How Logistics Performance Reshapes The Movement Of Stocks In The Context Of Climate Change?," Business Logistics in Modern Management, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 23, pages 43-62.
    20. Adel Benhamed & Yousif Osman & Ousama Ben-Salha & Zied Jaidi, 2023. "Unveiling the Spatial Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; carbon tax; credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wpmisp:mip_041_23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.