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A model of system-wide stress simulation: market-based finance and the Covid-19 event

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni di Iasio

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Spyridon Alogoskoufis

    (European Central Bank)

  • Simon Kordel

    (European Central Bank)

  • Dominika Kryczka

    (European Central Bank)

  • Giulio Nicoletti

    (European Central Bank)

  • Nicholas Vause

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We build a model to simulate how the euro-area market-based financial system may function under stressed conditions, such as the COVID-19 turmoil. The core of the model is a set of representative agents reflecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on their behaviour. We illustrate the model’s behaviour with a two-layer approach. In Layer 1, we consider the deterioration in the outlook for the nonfinancial corporate sector. Agents reallocate their portfolios and risky asset prices fall. Layer 2 adds a rating downgrade shock to Layer 1, where a fraction of investment grade nonfinancial corporate bonds is downgraded to high yield. The additional shock creates further rebalancing pressure and price movements. For both layers we present asset flows (i.e. buying and selling marketable securities) across agents and balance sheet losses. The model provides quantitative support to the equilibrium effects of the macroprudential regulation of investment funds, which we illustrate by varying their liquidity buffers.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni di Iasio & Spyridon Alogoskoufis & Simon Kordel & Dominika Kryczka & Giulio Nicoletti & Nicholas Vause, 2022. "A model of system-wide stress simulation: market-based finance and the Covid-19 event," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 687, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_687_22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    1. Martijn Boermans, 2022. "A literature review of securities holdings statistics research and a practitioner’s guide," Working Papers 757, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; market-based finance; stress testing; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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