IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_321_16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Ines Buono

    (Bank f Italy)

  • Sara Formai

    (Bank f Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the degree of anchoring in inflation expectations for different advanced economies using data from professional forecasters' surveys. We define expectations as anchored when movements in short-run expectations do not trigger movements in expectations at longer horizons. Using time-varying parameter regressions, we provide evidence that anchoring has varied noticeably across economies and over time. In particular, we find that starting from the second half of 2008, inflation expectations in the euro area, unlike in the US and in the UK, have shown signs of a de-anchoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Ines Buono & Sara Formai, 2016. "The evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 321, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_321_16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0321/QEF_321_16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    2. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    3. Sara Cecchetti & Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2015. "Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1025, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    5. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Alina Carare, 2008. "Inflation Smoothing and the Modest Effect of VAT in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2008/175, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    8. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2020. "Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 72-91.
    2. Hattori, Masazumi & Yetman, James, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-68.
    3. Andrea Fracasso & Rocco Probo, 2017. "When did inflation expectations in the Euro area de-anchor?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1481-1485, November.
    4. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    5. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "Phillips Curve and output expectations: New perspectives from the Euro Zone," DEM Working Papers 2020/6, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Natoli, Filippo & Sigalotti, Laura, 2017. "A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring," Working Paper Series 1996, European Central Bank.
    7. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.
    8. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    2. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 161-187, May.
    3. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    5. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Common Faith or Parting Ways? A Time Varying Parameters Factor Analysis of Euro-Area Inflation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 539-565, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    7. Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento & Petrassi, Myrian Beatriz Silva, 2014. "Is Inflation Persistence Over?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    8. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    9. Daniel Gaskin & Juergen Attard & Karen Caruana, 2017. "Household finance and consumption survey in Malta: the results from the second Wave," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2012. "Inflation persistence in the Euro area before and after the European Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1170-1176.
    11. Brian Micallef & Reuben Ellul, 2020. "How Do Estimates of Inflation Persistence in Malta Compare with Other EU Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-31, July.
    12. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    13. Fernando N. de Oliveira & Myrian Beatriz Petrassi, 2013. "Is the Inflation Persistence Over?," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Inflationary Dynamics, Persistence, and Prices and Wages Formation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 169-186, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    14. Brian Micallef & Cyrus, Laurent, 2013. "Inflation differentials in a Monetary Union: the case of Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2013, Central Bank of Malta.
    15. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:3:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
    17. Musy, Olivier & Pereau, Jean-Christophe, 2010. "Disinflationary boom in a price-wage spiral model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 152-158, January.
    18. Carlos Robalo Marques & Rita Duarte, 2009. "Wage and Price Dynamics in the United States and the Euro Area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    20. Zsolt Darvas & Balẳ Varga, 2014. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1437-1448, May.
    21. Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anchoring; inflation expectations; nonparametric estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_321_16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.