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External stress early warning indicators

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  • César Martín Machuca

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We examine the determinants of external stress episodes through probit analysis, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities in order to build an external crisis early warning indicator for a set of selected EMU countries. We use a panel country data spanning 1970-2011 from External Wealth Dataset (Phillip Lane). Our results show that the ratio of net and gross foreign liabilities to GDP and current account balances — which measure external debt accumulation speed — are significant stress predictors, although (net) FDI liabilities seem an offset factor. Early warning indicators are based on a signalling approach and exploit panel dimension of the data to develop a country specific indicator. We find that EMU peripheral countries’ external indebtedness remains higher than risk threshold, in spite of the external adjustment accumulated in the last years in some countries. This result highlights the necessity of going on structural reforms that reinforce competitiveness of these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • César Martín Machuca, 2017. "External stress early warning indicators," Working Papers 1733, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1733
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jose González Mínguez & Carmen Martínez Carrascal, 2019. "A crisis early warning model for euro area countries," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International investment positions; external debt; external vulnerability; current account imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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