The determinants of household credit in Spain
AbstractThis paper estimates a single-equation model to analyse the main explanatory factors behind changes in Spanish household credit, considering that the behaviour of its determinants is exogenous. According to the evidence reported, household borrowing is determined in the long run by real spending, gross wealth and the repayment term for outstanding credits, which have a positive influence, and by the cost of loans and the unemployment rate, the effect of which is of a negative sign. Developments in the short run are influenced by changes in long-term interest rates and in employment. The evidence offered suggests that, in general terms, the financing received by households over the period analysed is in line with what may be inferred from its determinants; however, the high volume of debt incurred entails greater exposure of the sector to unexpected changes in its income, in its wealth or in the cost of borrowing, especially in a setting in which floating-rate loans are increasingly significant.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0716.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
credit; household; error correction;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-07-07 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2007-07-07 (Macroeconomics)
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