Identifying Volatility Risk Premium from Fixed Income Asian Options
AbstractWe provide approximation formulas for at-the-money asian option prices to extract volatility risk premium from a joint dataset of bonds and option prices. The dynamic model generates stochastic volatility and a time-varying volatility risk premium, which explicitly depends on the average cross section of bond yields and on the time series behavior of option prices. When estimated using a joint dataset of Brazilian local bonds and asian options, the model generates bond risk premium strongly correlated (89%) with a widely accepted emerging markets benchmark index, and a negative volatility risk premium implying that investors might be using options as insurance in this market. Volatility premium explains a significant portion (32.5%) of bond premium, confirming that options are indeed important to identify risk premium in dynamic term structure models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 136.
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
Other versions of this item:
- Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009. "Identifying volatility risk premia from fixed income Asian options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 652-661, April.
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-SEA-2007-06-02 (South East Asia)
- NEP-UPT-2007-06-02 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Guo, Dajiang, 1998. "The Risk Premium of Volatility Implicit in Currency Options," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 498-507, October.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip, 2002. "Average Rate Claims with Emphasis on Catastrophe Loss Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 93-115, March.
- Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2006.
"Expected stock returns and variance risk premia,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2007-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2007-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Tim Bollerslev & Tzuo Hao & George Tauchen, 2008. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2008-48, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Hélyette Geman & Marc Yor, 1993. "Bessel Processes, Asian Options, And Perpetuities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 349-375.
- Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
- Casassus, Jaime & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Bob, 2005. "Unspanned stochastic volatility and fixed income derivatives pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2723-2749, November.
- Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Fornari, Fabio, 2010.
"Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 722-743, September.
- Fornari, Fabio, 2008. "Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives," Working Paper Series 0859, European Central Bank.
- Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- George Chacko, 2002. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 195-241, March.
- Brenner, Menachem & Ou, Ernest Y. & Zhang, Jin E., 2006. "Hedging volatility risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 811-821, March.
- José Valentim Machado Vicente & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillen, 2010.
"Do Inflation-linked Bonds Contain Information about Future Inflation?,"
Working Papers Series
214, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- José Valentim Machado Vicente & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillen, 2013. "Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(2), pages 251-260, June.
- Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009.
"Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1376-1387, August.
- Caio Almeida & José Vicente, 2009. "Are Interest Rate Options Important for the Assessment of Interest Rate Risk?," Working Papers Series 179, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Marcos S. Matsumura & José Valentim Vicente, 2009.
"The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk,"
Working Papers Series
196, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Matsumura, Marco S. & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249, September.
- Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benjamin Tabak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.