Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model
AbstractSuppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad." One would interpret currency crises (or recessions) as a shift from the good equilibrium to the bad. In this paper, the authors specify a dynamic investment-savings-aggregate-supply (IS-AS) model, determine its closed-form solution, and examine numerically its comparative statics. The authors estimate the model via maximum likelihood, using data for Argentina, Canada, and Turkey. Since the data show no support for the multiple-equilibrium explanation of fluctuations, the authors cast doubt on the third-generation models of currency crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-5.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Uncertainty and monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-06-24 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-06-24 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2006-06-24 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-06-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-06-24 (Monetary Economics)
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