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Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model

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Author Info
Christopher M. Cornell
Raphael H. Solomon
Abstract

Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad." One would interpret currency crises (or recessions) as a shift from the good equilibrium to the bad. In this paper, the authors specify a dynamic investment-savings-aggregate-supply (IS-AS) model, determine its closed-form solution, and examine numerically its comparative statics. The authors estimate the model via maximum likelihood, using data for Argentina, Canada, and Turkey. Since the data show no support for the multiple-equilibrium explanation of fluctuations, the authors cast doubt on the third-generation models of currency crisis.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2006/wp06-5.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-5.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-5

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Related research
Keywords: Uncertainty and monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cooper, Russell & Corbae, Dean, 2002. "Financial Collapse: A Lesson from the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 159-190, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Dagsvik & Boyan Jovanovic, 1995. "Was the Great Depression a Low-Level Equilibrium?," NBER Working Papers 3726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cornell, Christopher M., 2003. "Target zones, reserve crises, and inverted S-curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 313-323, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alberto Bisin & Andrea Moro & Giorgio Topa, 2006. "The Empirical Content of Models with Multiple Equilibria," 2006 Meeting Papers 660, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  7. William R. White & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Whither monetary and financial stability? the implications of evolving policy regimes," BIS Working Papers 147, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alberto Bisin & Giorgio Topa & Thierry Verdier, 2004. "Religious Intermarriage and Socialization in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 615-664, June.
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