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Topology of Foreign Exchange Markets using Hierarchical Structure Methods

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  • Michael J. Naylor
  • Lawrence C. Rose
  • Brendan J. Moyle

Abstract

This paper uses two hierarchical techniques, a minimal spanning tree and an ultrametric hierarchical tree, to extract a topological influence map for major currencies from the ultrametric distance matrix for 1996-2001. We find that these two techniques generate a defined and robust scale free network with meaningful taxonomy. The topology is shown to be robust with respect to method, to time horizon and is stable during market crises. This topology, appropriately used, gives a guide to determining the underlying economic or regional causal relationships for individual currencies and will prove useful to understanding the dynamics of exchange rate price determination as part of a complex network.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0608084
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number physics/0608084.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision: Nov 2006
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0608084

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
  3. Tanya Ara\'{u}jo & Francisco Lou\c{c}\~{a}, 2005. "The Geometry of Crashes - A Measure of the Dynamics of Stock Market Crises," Papers physics/0506137, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2005.
  4. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louçã, 2005. "The Geometry of Crashes - A Measure of the Dynamics of Stock Market Crises," Working Papers Department of Economics 2005/15, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. Laurent Laloux & Pierre Cizeau & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 1998. "Noise dressing of financial correlation matrices," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500051, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  6. Onnela, J.-P. & Chakraborti, A. & Kaski, K. & Kertész, J., 2003. "Dynamic asset trees and Black Monday," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 247-252.
  7. N. T. Laopodis, 2003. "Stochastic behaviour of Deutsche mark exchange rates within EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 665-676.
  8. Giovanni Bonanno & Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2000. "High-frequency Cross-correlation in a Set of Stocks," Papers cond-mat/0009350, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2000.
  9. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  10. N. Vandewalle & F. Brisbois & X. Tordoir, 2001. "Non-random topology of stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 372-374.
  11. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Donatello W. Materassi & Giacomo W. Innocenti, 2008. "Topological identification in networks of dynamical systems," Papers 0804.2441, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2008.
  2. Aoki, Masanao & Hawkins, Raymond, 2009. "Macroeconomic Relaxation: Adjustment Processes of Hierarchical Economic Structures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(17), pages 1-21.
  3. Kantar, Ersin & Keskin, Mustafa, 2013. "The relationships between electricity consumption and GDP in Asian countries, using hierarchical structure methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5678-5684.
  4. Carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011104, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2011. "Pruning a Minimum Spanning Tree," Papers 1109.0642, arXiv.org.
  6. Materassi, Donatello & Innocenti, Giacomo, 2009. "Unveiling the connectivity structure of financial networks via high-frequency analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(18), pages 3866-3878.
  7. Oya, Shunsuke & Aihara, Kazuyuki & Hirata, Yoshito, 2014. "An absolute measure for a key currency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 15-23.
  8. Khaldoun Khashanah & Linyan Miao, 2011. "Dynamic structure of the US financial systems," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 321-339, October.
  9. Janusz Mi\'skiewicz, 2012. "Network analysis of correlation strength between the most developed countries," Papers 1211.3599, arXiv.org.
  10. Trancoso, Tiago, 2014. "Emerging markets in the global economic network: Real(ly) decoupling?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 499-510.
  11. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Han, Feng & Sun, Bo, 2012. "Similarity measure and topology evolution of foreign exchange markets using dynamic time warping method: Evidence from minimal spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(16), pages 4136-4146.
  12. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2012. "Pruning a minimum spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2678-2711.
  13. Matesanz, David & Ortega, Guillermo J., 2008. "Network analysis of exchange data: Interdependence drives crisis contagion," MPRA Paper 7720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Rea, Alethea & Rea, William, 2014. "Visualization of a stock market correlation matrix," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 109-123.
  15. Lee, Junghoon & Youn, Janghyuk & Chang, Woojin, 2012. "Intraday volatility and network topological properties in the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1354-1360.
  16. Jarosław Kwapień & Sylwia Gworek & Stanisław Drożdż & Andrzej Górski, 2009. "Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 55-72, June.

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