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Performance Evaluation of Equal-Weight Portfolio and Optimum Risk Portfolio on Indian Stocks

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  • Abhiraj Sen
  • Jaydip Sen

Abstract

Designing an optimum portfolio for allocating suitable weights to its constituent assets so that the return and risk associated with the portfolio are optimized is a computationally hard problem. The seminal work of Markowitz that attempted to solve the problem by estimating the future returns of the stocks is found to perform sub-optimally on real-world stock market data. This is because the estimation task becomes extremely challenging due to the stochastic and volatile nature of stock prices. This work illustrates three approaches to portfolio design minimizing the risk, optimizing the risk, and assigning equal weights to the stocks of a portfolio. Thirteen critical sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are first chosen. Three portfolios are designed following the above approaches choosing the top ten stocks from each sector based on their free-float market capitalization. The portfolios are designed using the historical prices of the stocks from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022. The portfolios are evaluated on the stock price data from Jan 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are compared, and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhiraj Sen & Jaydip Sen, 2023. "Performance Evaluation of Equal-Weight Portfolio and Optimum Risk Portfolio on Indian Stocks," Papers 2309.13696, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2309.13696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sidra Mehtab & Jaydip Sen, 2020. "A Time Series Analysis-Based Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models," Papers 2004.11697, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    2. Sidra Mehtab & Jaydip Sen & Abhishek Dutta, 2020. "Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models," Papers 2009.10819, arXiv.org.
    3. Jaydip Sen, 2022. "A forecasting framework for the Indian healthcare sector index," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 311-350.
    4. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    5. Jaydip Sen & Tamal Datta Chaudhuri, 2018. "Understanding the sectors of Indian economy for portfolio choice," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 178-222.
    6. Sidra Mehtab & Jaydip Sen, 2020. "Stock Price Prediction Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models," Papers 2010.13891, arXiv.org.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Flori, Andrea & Regoli, Daniele, 2021. "Revealing Pairs-trading opportunities with long short-term memory networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 772-791.
    9. Massimiliano Kaucic & Mojtaba Moradi & Mohmmad Mirzazadeh, 2019. "Portfolio optimization by improved NSGA-II and SPEA 2 based on different risk measures," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    11. Jaydip SEN & Tamal DATTA CHAUDHURI, 2016. "An Alternative Framework for Time Series Decomposition and Forecastingand its Relevance for Portfolio Choice – A Comparative Study of the Indian Consumer Durable and Small Cap Sectors," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 303-326, June.
    12. Jaydip Sen, 2018. "Stock composition of mutual funds and fund style: a time series decomposition approach towards testing for consistency," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 235-292.
    13. Jaydip SEN & Tamal DATTA CHAUDHURI, 2017. "A Predictive Analysis of the Indian FMCG Sector using Time Series Decomposition - Based Approach," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 206-226, June.
    14. Jaydip Sen & Sidra Mehtab, 2021. "Design and Analysis of Robust Deep Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction," Papers 2106.09664, arXiv.org.
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